In "War and Conflict in Africa," Paul Williams evaluates which factors explain the frequency of conflict in Africa during the post-Cold War era and how the international community has tried to build peace and prevent future conflict.
While there is widespread agreement that the incidence of conflict in Africa is high, scholars and development agencies alike debate its driving forces and how to move toward solutions. , associate professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University and collaborator with the 乐鱼 体育鈥檚 Africa Program, recently published a book that aims to both quantify African conflicts and devise a framework of their causes. In , Williams evaluates which factors explain the frequency of conflict in Africa during the post-Cold War era and how the international community has tried to build peace and prevent future conflict.
Although there have been toward establishing peace and democracy in some African countries, the continent still accounts for about 鈥 more than Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas combined. International responses to these events range from focused humanitarian and conflict resolution efforts, to new regional organizations and global strategic and defense partnerships.
Seven of the 16 operate in Africa, more than any other continent. The UK government has elected to spend nearly in conflict-affected areas, and of its 鈥渇ocus鈥 countries are in Africa. In 2008, the Department of Defense created the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), whose commander, General Carter Ham, in a , described 鈥渁n insidious cycle of instability, conflict, environmental degradation, and disease that erodes confidence in national institutions and governing capacity,鈥 as motivation for American military attention. 鈥淭his in turn often creates the conditions for the emergence of a wide range of transnational security threats,鈥 he said.
Evaluating the Ingredients of Conflict
Williams rejects earlier theses that attribute conflict across the continent to a single factor, such as the boundary legacies of colonialism, greed, or ethnicity. Instead, he characterizes African conflicts as 鈥渞ecipes鈥 composed of case-specific mixes of factors, many of which are underlying and only some of which are sufficient triggers for conflict. 鈥,鈥 Williams explained in an email interview. 鈥淕overnance structures are always an important part of the buildup to war.鈥
Five 鈥渋ngredients鈥 of conflict are examined in-depth: neo-patrimonial governance structures; natural and human resources; sovereignty and self-determination; ethnicity; and religion. Among these, the book presents a fairly skeptical view of resources, ethnicity, and religion as immediate drivers of conflict. This assessment that environmental and identity issues are not sufficient to generate conflict on their own aligns with the book鈥檚 overarching argument: The decisions of political actors can instigate conflict or motivate peace from virtually any context, manipulating factors such as ethnicity and religion for their own advantage.
Effects of Natural Resources Are 鈥淥pen-Ended鈥
A widely publicized thread of peace and conflict studies posits that resources, either when scarce or abundant, have an important role in triggering wars. A found that 40 percent of all internal conflicts since 1950 鈥渉ave a link to natural resources.鈥 Recent has suggested that certain environmental changes increase the likelihood of civil conflicts or are for it. Yet the question remains a source of . For his part, Williams asserts that natural resources alone are insufficient to cause conflict.
War and Conflict in Africa presents several reasons that researchers and policymakers should avoid linking resources directly to conflict without considering the influence of intervening factors. Chief among them is that the value of any resource is socially constructed 鈥 no stone or river carries worth until humans decide so. Therefore, Williams argues that 鈥渋t is political systems, not resources per se, that are the crucial factor in elevating the risk of armed conflict.鈥
The book suggests that two extant theories successfully demonstrate the connection between resources and conflict. The first body of research finds that of resource abundance and a high degree of social deprivation. The second theory suggests that the link between resources and conflict lies in bad governance, whether or . Both theories have explanatory power for Williams鈥檚 central line of thinking: Resources can be either a blessing or a curse, depending on leadership.
鈥淚nserted into a context where corrupt autocrats have the advantage, resources will strengthen their hand and generate grievances,鈥 he writes (p. 93). 鈥淚nserted into a stable democratic system, they will enhance the opportunities for leaders to promote national prosperity.鈥
Population and the Environment
Williams does accede that particular resource factors 鈥 land and demography, for example 鈥 may play a more significant role than others in conflict, but calls for more research. In a brief discussion of population age structure, the book suggests that there is no single relationship between demography and conflict but multiple ways that the two can relate. Williams mentions the theory that 鈥渓arge pools of disaffected youth鈥 with few opportunities can raise the risk of volatility. However, he then notes showing that the most marginalized members of certain African societies are less likely to participate in political protests and more likely to tolerate authoritarian rule than those who are better off.
鈥淭he most marginalized from society are the truly destitute without patrons and suffering from severe poverty. They may well be inclined to join an insurgency movement once it begins to snowball but they will not usually play a key role in establishing the rebel group in the first place,鈥 Williams said. However, 鈥渁ny time there are large pools of poor and unemployed youth there is the potential for leaders to manipulate them.鈥
On environmental resources, the book argues that land should be a central feature of quantitative research on the relationship between resources and conflict. Most African economies continue to rely on agriculture, and Williams observes that land has been 鈥渁t the heart鈥 of many conflicts in the region through a variety of governance-related mechanisms relating to its management and control. He places less emphasis on as a potential factor in conflict, noting that the signed around the world in the past decade auger well for cooperation rather than competition.
Williams is also dubious of emerging arguments that climate change could directly increase the incidence of conflict, either through changing weather patterns or climate-induced migration.
鈥淏ecause armed conflicts are, by definition, the result of groups choosing to fight one another, any process, including climate change, can never be a sufficient condition for armed conflict to occur,鈥 he argued. 鈥淎rmed conflicts result from the conscious decisions of actors which might be informed by the weather but are never simply caused by it.鈥
No Simple Formula
Williams is not the only observer to find the narrative that resource shortage (or abundance) precipitates conflict too simplistic. His message to policymakers is a common refrain from academics and analysts seeking to counteract policymakers鈥 quest for simple formulas: We need more data.
鈥淲hen deciding how to spend our money, we need to spend more of it on developing systems which deliver accurate knowledge about what is happening on the ground, often in very localized settings,鈥 Williams said. War and Conflict in Africa contributes to a more complex understanding of the political actors and systems that and offers a cautionary tale to those who seek only proven, easy predictions.
Elizabeth Leahy Madsen is a consultant on political demography for the 乐鱼 体育鈥檚 Environmental Change and Security Program and senior technical advisor at Futures Group. She was previously a senior research associate at Population Action International. Full disclosure: She was a graduate student of Paul Williams鈥 in 2007.
Sources: DFID, Englebert and Ron (2004), Ham (2011), Hsiang et al (2011), Kahl (1998), Leysens (2006),脴stby et al (2009), Radelet (2010), Themn茅r and Wallensteen (2011), UNEP (2009), UN Peacekeeping, Williams (2011)
Image Credit: Conflicts in Africa 2000-09, reprinted with permission courtesy of P.D. Williams, War and Conflict in Africa (Williams, 2011), p.3.
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