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Free and fair elections are routinely expected in Canada, but, for Canadians, the next federal general election is looking like an election about being free and treated fair: Canada鈥檚 freedom as an independent country, not the 51 US state, and Canadian desire for fair trade rules in response to US tariffs. This election will decide who leads Canada but will also send a message to Washington about the future of Canada-United States relations.

Canada鈥檚 new Prime Minister Mark Carney asked Governor General Mary Simon to call a federal election for Monday, April 28. Under the , an election must be held no less than 36 days after the writ of election is issued, and not more than 51 days after. This election campaign, at 36 days, is the shortest allowed, reflecting the urgency Canadians feel about having strong leadership now. 

Voters will select , five more than the in the House of Commons. The adjustment means that it will take 172 seats to form a majority government; since 2004, Canadians have had only two majority governments, one Conservative and one Liberal, meaning that for more than 60 percent of the past 21 years Canada has had relatively weak, minority governments that held only a plurality of Commons seats.

Canadians have been anticipating an election for months. system required a federal election four years after the previous one on October 20, 2021. Justin Trudeau鈥檚 January 6 resignation set in motion two processes: the and a that chose Carney on March 9. By calling for an election before the return of Parliament, Carney avoided the ritual of a Throne Speech setting out the government鈥檚 agenda that would likely have been followed by a vote of no-confidence that would have triggered an election anyway.

After leading , the Official Opposition Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre over the Liberals since Carney replaced Trudeau, with . The Conservatives led for more than a year because the country was tired of Trudeau and the Conservatives were the only party capable of winning a national election and displacing the Liberals: the Bloc Quebecois runs candidates only in Quebec, while support for the New Democratic Party and the Green Party is concentrated in too few areas of the country.

An Election about Something: Relations with the United States

Canada鈥檚 most recent federal election in 2021 鈥渁n election about nothing鈥� as low by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau鈥檚 justification for calling the election more than a year early. Afterward, the 2021 election

The 2025 election will be different. It will be about one thing: responding to new rhetoric from US President Donald Trump that have prompted the greatest crisis in US-Canadian relations in more than a century.

The tone of US-Canada relations started to shift at a , when President-elect Donald Trump called Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau . The initial taunt was aimed at Trudeau, but soon Canada鈥檚 independence was by the president and administration officials. In February, after Trump used an interview following the National Football League Superbowl to insist that . Trudeau told Canadians that .

While Poilievre has been and earned for his critique of the Canadian establishment and media, he was quick to reject the idea of Canada becoming a US state, 鈥淲e will bear any burden and pay any price to protect the sovereignty and independence of our country鈥�. 

Carney has taken a similarly nationalist position, , 鈥淎merica is not Canada, and Canada will never ever be part of America in any way, shape or form鈥�. Carney echoed this view proclaiming that,  Soon after, he was to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio鈥檚 repetition of Trump鈥檚 call for Canadian statehood and replied, 鈥淚t鈥檚 crazy, full stop.鈥� 

While a US invasion of Canada is not imminent, Trump to pressure Canada to join the United States. Canadians view US tariff threats as the start of this pressure.

Since the start of 2025, Canada has faced three tariff threats from the United States: 

• An premised on inadequate border security efforts to address fentanyl trafficking. These tariffs were applied on March 2, triggering Canadian retaliation, and , citing the automotive industry.
• Tariffs on imported and from all sources including Canada, which took effect March 12.
• New based on import tariffs imposed on US products. These tariffs will be based on studies from agencies and departments . may include tariffs in response to the tariff rate equivalent of Canada鈥檚 dairy supply management policies, and a tariff to counter value-added taxation such as Canada鈥檚 Goods and Services Tax, for example.

US tariff threats were initially seen by Canadians as intended to induce an early start to the review of the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiated during the first Trump administration. The suspension of tariffs on automotive trade on March was premised on automotive products鈥� compliance with the USMCA rule of origin. 

Following USMCA rules is a fair request, and the USMCA review was mandated in the agreement to occur by 2026, so starting this review early is fair and reasonable.

But if tariffs are meant to force Canadians into submission to US statehood, Canadians will consider them unfair鈥攁nd demand that the next prime minister of Canada fight back.

Conservative leader Poilievre has . He is the best way to strengthen Canada so that it can resist US tariff attacks. 

Trump noticed Poilievre鈥檚 defiant tone,  published on February 28 that 鈥淚 think his biggest problem is he鈥檚 not a MAGA guy, you know? I mean, he鈥檚 really not he鈥檚 not a Trump guy at all.鈥� Ironically, in the current political atmosphere in Canada, this criticism may boost support for Poilievre. 

Later, in response to the March 2 imposition of tariffs, America had stabbed Canada in the back, and that, 鈥淲hile Canadians are slow to anger and quick to forgive, once provoked, we fight back. And we will fight back.鈥� 

Prime Minister Carney must balance the diplomacy required of an incumbent with the tough talk Canadians want from their leaders in response to US threats. 

After becoming leader, Carney to meet with his French and British counterparts鈥攁 break with the tradition for Canadian prime ministers to meet their US counterparts first. Carney he would speak to Trump on the basis of mutual respect for sovereignty. 

In , Carney was more direct. "We need to build the strongest economy in the G7. We need to deal with President 鈥檚 tariffs," Carney  on X on March 23.

Relations with the United States are now the central issue of the Canadian federal general election on April 28. The campaign will give Canadians the chance to speak out and be heard in response to US treatment that has already led Canadian at hockey and basketball games against American teams.

Geoff Norquay, a former staffer for the late Prime Minister Brian Mulroney鈥攖he most pro-American Canadian leader in recent memory鈥� that the 2025 ballot question for Canadians would be Donald Trump. This prediction has proven accurate.

 On day one of the campaign, the ballot answer seems certain to be that Canadians want their country to remain free and trade with the United States to be fair. It will be a message that Canada鈥檚 prime minister after April 28 and the Trump administration will need to contend with as bilateral relations enter an uncertain new phase.