乐鱼 体育

Introduction 

Former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has now been confirmed as the new High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy (HRVP) following the November 12 hearing. Dubbed and the first head of government to be  on Russia's wanted list, she now inherits a role that has faced significant criticism over the past few years, even  鈥渢he EU鈥檚 most pointless job.鈥� 

Her predecessor, Josep Borrell Fontelles, faced a series of crises that outpaced the design of the HRVP role: a turbulent enlargement agenda, the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and conflicts in the Middle East.

碍补濒濒补蝉鈥檚 politics,  by French President Macron, have made her the EU鈥檚 chief diplomat. Following in the footsteps of her father, who served as the Prime Minister of Estonia and as a European Commissioner, Kallas also served as a member of the Estonian Parliament and the European Parliament. As the first High Representative from post-communist Europe and from the Baltic states, Kallas is well-versed in Russia. In 2024, she  the Walther Rathenau Prize for her foreign policy leadership in supporting Ukraine鈥檚 fight against Russian aggression.

Today, the fires are all around; Russia is only one concern, and the EU thus far has yet to find consensus on a course of action. The question, therefore, is whether Kallas鈥� pragmatism can overcome the EU鈥檚 challenges and the internal constraints on the role to transform the EU from a rhetorical actor to a global leader once more. 

Talking to , she said, 鈥淥ur neighbors鈥� problems today are our problems tomorrow.鈥� She continued, 鈥淪o if your neighbor鈥檚 house [is in flames], it鈥檚 better to put out the fire there than to wait until the fire reaches your house.鈥� That is her task as chief diplomat鈥攃orral member states to common positions so the EU can put out its neighbors鈥� fires鈥揳nd these are the challenges facing her term and her vision to take them on.

In her first weeks on the job, Kallas will lead the effort on continuing support for Ukraine amid uncertainties on Washington鈥檚 position and leading possible negotiations with Russia on behalf of the EU. 

European Defence and Security

Kaja Kallas has been given a vote of confidence with a clear mandate and expectations for the EU鈥檚 foreign policy, security, and defense by the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen. In her to Kallas, von der Leyen outlines the main priorities to addressing this new era of geostrategic rivalries. One of the main and most challenging tasks for Kallas during her tenure will be to build up a , together with the newly established role of the Commissioner on Defense and Space.

Furthermore, Kallas will be facing the challenge of successfully navigating the transatlantic relationship with the new presidential administration in Washington while strengthening the EU-NATO partnership.

In her first weeks on the job, Kallas will lead the effort on continuing support for Ukraine amid uncertainties on Washington鈥檚 position and leading possible negotiations with Russia on behalf of the EU. As war fatigue sets in across the EU, a major priority for Kallas will be ensuring coordination among EU member states to deliver consistent and timely military aid to Ukraine while addressing differing views within the bloc. Equally important is keeping EU members united in enforcing sanctions against Russia. Additionally, Kallas will help shape a united EU response to Russia while managing the interests of global powers like China and the US.

Kallas is the first HRVP to inherit such a volatile European security climate, with mandates for defense industrial reform, all while conventional partnerships take on new shapes. Kallas will be subject to significant pressure from member states to perform in this area, as this challenge has been the driving force behind her appointment to the HRVP role.

Mediterranean Policy

In the southern neighbourhood, Kallas faces the dual challenge of addressing divisions within the EU on the Middle East conflict and achieving consensus on migration.

Deep splits among EU member states鈥攔anging from staunchly pro-Israel countries like Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic to more pro-Palestinian nations like Spain and Ireland鈥攈ave left the EU, and outgoing HRVP Josep Borrell, reliant on rhetoric rather than coordinated action.

She is undertaking a role in which her predecessor proposed  with Israel over their lack of adherence to international law. Kallas has stuck close to the , emphasizing Israel鈥檚 right to self-defense while advocating for adherence to humanitarian law and a two-state solution.

Generating consensus on this issue will be a principal challenge in her tenure. In October, the Czech Republic  a joint statement calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, leaving Borrell to act unilaterally, undermining the EU鈥檚 credibility.

With migration and asylum at the top of the political agenda, the EU is similarly without consensus. Italy controversially advocates  to facilitate deportations, and Hungary and the Netherlands have  of EU migration rules. With the  of rebel Syrian forces that took Aleppo on December 1, migration from Syria, normalization with the current government and relations with Turkey may take new forms during 碍补濒濒补蝉鈥檚 tenure.

Kallas has  for addressing the root causes of migration from Africa through development and combating human trafficking. She also views the southern neighborhood as a place of great power competition, particularly as China increasingly exerts its influence in the region.

The EU's Mediterranean policy exemplifies Kalla's greatest challenge: how to fulfill the role of the HRVP, where the EU can assert its influence and maintain cohesion.

Already in the previous Commission, the imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles exposed fault lines among member states on how the EU should address its trade relations with China. The primary challenge therefore remains how to sustain the efforts to de-risk from China to address the EU鈥檚 vulnerabilities in key sectors. 

Trade and Economic Diplomacy 

As part of her mandate as the HRVP, Kaja Kallas is also  with shaping a 鈥渘ew foreign economic policy.鈥� Together with Executive Vice President Maro拧 艩ef膷ovi膷, she will focus on developing a new strategy for 鈥渆conomic security and statecraft, free and fair trade and investing in mutually beneficial partnerships around the world.鈥� While trade and economic policy are not her primary portfolio, Kallas will play a vital role in the EU's external engagement when it comes to trade.

Her first challenge will be to break the stalemate on the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement (FTA). Since the initial political agreement in 2019, the FTA has received backlash from various stakeholders for lacking environmental safeguards and creating unfair competition. France, in particular, has been the most vocal opponent to the implementation of the agreement, with its domestic agricultural sector  a surge of agricultural products from South America. However, Kallas seems to be determined to bring the agreement across the finish line, as well as expand trade relations with other actors. She sees this as the best strategy to prevent a trade 鈥渧oid鈥� in these countries to 鈥渂e filled by China鈥�.

In her European Parliament hearing, Kaja Kallas also acknowledged that China has become 鈥渕ore a competitor and a systemic rival鈥� than a partner for cooperation. This signals an important shift in the EU's China policy. However, already in the previous Commission, the imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles  fault lines among member states on how the EU should address its trade relations with China. The primary challenge therefore remains how to sustain the efforts to de-risk from China to address the EU鈥檚 vulnerabilities in key sectors. 

Looming large over her mandate is also the transatlantic partnership. Kallas will have to engage with a new US administration that has  imposing tariffs on all European exports. While the future of the Trade and Technology Council remains uncertain, avoiding a full-blown trade war with the United States is a top priority. Kallas鈥� framing of global threats and shared challenges, especially the role of China and EU鈥檚 increased responsibility in defense and Ukraine, could yield fruitful results in maintaining dialogue with the new US administration. Such efforts will be crucial in trying to diffuse the perceived tensions with Europe鈥檚 strongest ally.

In times when the EU faces tensions with its two main trade partners, the United States and China, the challenge for Kallas will be how the EU鈥檚 new foreign economic policy will balance between remaining the herald of free trade and building up its economic security.

EU Enlargement

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 served as a wake-up call for Europe, prompting a reevaluation of its enlargement policy. In June 2022, Moldova and Ukraine were officially granted candidate status by the EU. In December 2023, the EU decided to open accession negotiations with Moldova and Ukraine and granted candidate status to Georgia. Three months later, Bosnia and Herzegovina was invited to begin accession talks.

Despite this renewed momentum, the process has recently again begun to falter. In September 2024, the EU decided to decouple Albania鈥檚 accession path from North Macedonia's due to the latter's ongoing bilateral dispute with Bulgaria. To lift the veto imposed by Bulgaria, North Macedonia must  its constitution to formally recognize its 鈥渆thnic Bulgarian minority as one of the state鈥檚 founding peoples鈥�-- something the recently elected government has been  to do.

In addition, Kosovo remains the only country that has applied for EU membership but has not been recognized by the EU as a candidate country, due to the ongoing Kosovo-Serbia dispute. The EU has been trying to resolve the conflict through its own facilitated Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue, with efforts intensifying after Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine that culminated in the . However, the new agreement failed to normalize relations between the two countries, as neither party has committed to its implementation. This slow progress has fueled tensions and recurring clashes in the north of Kosovo and damaged the EU鈥檚 reputation in the region. Revitalizing the Dialogue will be challenging for Kallas, who is expected to appoint a new special envoy in January 2025.

Rising tensions between Kosovo and Serbia, the power-sharing stalemate in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russian foreign interference, and most recently the announcement by the Georgian government to halt its EU membership talks all underscore one message: keeping enlargement prospects alive may prove a formidable task.

Following the Georgian government's recent  to suspend EU membership negotiations until 2028, Kallas will also need to navigate how the EU can further support the will of the Georgian population, which overwhelmingly favors Euro-Atlantic integration.

In the next five years, the new Commission wants to achieve meaningful progress, bringing candidate countries closer to the Union. However, rising tensions between Kosovo and Serbia, the power-sharing stalemate in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russian foreign interference, and most recently the announcement by the Georgian government to halt its EU membership talks all underscore one message: keeping enlargement prospects alive may prove a formidable task.

Conclusion 

HRVP Kallas faces many of the same challenges as her predecessor did, only now with increased stakes and new challenges to boot. Going into the role, she will have to confront European security and defense industrial reform; Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine; a worsening migration crisis from climate change and the widening Middle East conflict; a splintering transatlantic relationship under increased stress due to China-US competition; and an enlargement agenda in question as Russia鈥檚 grip grows in Moldova and Georgia and tensions rise between Kosovo and Serbia. Expectations and demand are high, yet the constraints to the HRVP role in balancing unanimity seem greater. Kaja Kallas faces her biggest challenge yet鈥攖o turn reform into action while putting out fires across Europe鈥檚 neighborhoods.