乐鱼体育

The assassination of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov has spawned numerous theories about the cause and its organizers. Like past political assassinations in Russia, the truth may never be fully known, but Nemtsov鈥檚 open opposition to Russia鈥檚 military action in Ukraine and his work on a report documenting Russia鈥檚 large-scale involvement in the fighting there could provide a motive. Furthermore, Nemtsov鈥檚 death may hold the key to understanding deeper schisms within Russia, both between the government and advocates for reform, and between Putin and extreme nationalist entities.

The official Russian version of the conflict in Ukraine, fanned by Russia鈥檚 leadership and the state-controlled media, holds that the fighting in Ukraine is a purely internal matter and that claims of involvement of Russian forces and equipment are simply lies. Playing on nationalist sentiments and a belief that outsiders, , President Putin has enjoyed a large popularity bump from Crimea. Deftly used lies, obfuscations and outrageous assertions to mislead the Russian public about the depth of Russian involvement in the Ukraine fighting and to cover up the  have become standard fare. The president鈥檚 paeans to  and the blame he has placed on the West for Russia鈥檚 economic woes have all but  to his presidency.

Nemtsov, a charismatic and telegenic former deputy prime minister, had been politically marginalized and commanded little popular support. However, on the eve of his murder, Nemtsov was ready to offer an overt rebuttal to the official version of events in Crimea and, with it, to President Putin鈥檚 authority. He was  to oppose the President鈥檚 actions in Ukraine, and was also  documenting the heavy involvement of the Russian army in equipping the separatist forces there, fighting alongside them, and incurring a large number of Russian casualties. The evidence of these charges disappeared soon after Nemtsov鈥檚 death, as police and security forces raided Nemtsov鈥檚 apartment and reportedly.

In the face of the seemingly overwhelming support for the nationalist course and the weakness of Putin鈥檚 opponents, why silence Nemtsov? As a former deputy prime minister with a wide circle of friends in high places, Nemtsov鈥檚 voice would have lent the prestige and the credibility of a recognized Russian authority to the evidence against the official version of Ukrainian events offered by the Russian government. Outside President Putin鈥檚 close ring of advisors, there are voices in official Russia that are uneasy with what is happening in Ukraine and with Russia鈥檚 increasing isolation and economic stagnation. Nemtsov鈥檚 report and voice would have strengthened these elements and could have been a threat to Putin鈥檚 power.

Public opinion polls in Russia show  for the annexation of Crimea, but  about Russia engaging in a war in Ukraine. It is useful to recall the role played by Russian mothers and grandmothers in raising opposition to Russia鈥檚 war in Afghanistan thirty-five years ago when their sons and grandsons came back in sealed coffins.  of parental grief are occurring today.

So, what does Nemtsov鈥檚 death mean? Despite the threat of Nemtsov鈥檚 report, Nemtsov and Russia鈥檚 liberal community hardly represented a direct political threat to Putin鈥檚 government. Nemtsov was killed a short distance from the Kremlin, the most heavily guarded place in Moscow, and his movements were certainly monitored in the days before his death. All this suggests a well-planned operation with perpetrators well-versed in the routine of Russia鈥檚 security forces. Nemtsov鈥檚 killers decided that he should serve as an example to demonstrate the fate of those who would call for Russian moderation in Ukraine. The crime, if not the intended message, has been obfuscated by .

Since his reelection President Putin has led his country away from cooperation with the West. His insistence on Russia defining its independent path and his Ukrainian venture have encouraged and empowered . These elements are pushing for more overt Russian support for the separatists in Ukraine. The question is whether the tiger the President and his supporters have unleashed has moved beyond his authority by killing Nemtsov without government approval. It is unclear whether President Putin will raise the stakes and escalate the divisive rhetoric, or tone it down and take a hard look at the Russian nationalists and their allies in his security services. No matter what, the Nemtsov killing is a warning that Putin鈥檚 war in Ukraine may be coming closer to home.