乐鱼 体育

Last November at the 乐鱼 体育, Eurasia Group expert Christopher Garman predicted President Jair Bolsonaro would have a 鈥渟hort honeymoon鈥� and encounter a challenging public opinion climate. Garman was right. By late March, only of Brazilians thought Bolsonaro was doing a 鈥済ood or great job鈥濃�攄own from 49 percent in January, and the lowest rating after three months in office for any first-term president since 1990.

The end of the administration鈥檚 first hundred days in office on April 11 presents an opportunity to look past the highly polarized political atmosphere and take stock of what the new government has accomplished so far, in concrete terms.

It makes sense to evaluate the government on its own terms. Bolsonaro鈥檚 campaign promised an administration that would focus on four main areas: combating crime and corruption, promoting conservative values (especially in areas like gun access and education), promulgating fiscal reform, and realigning foreign policy. The government can credit itself with making certain steps towards its goals in each area, but few of its gains have been consolidated鈥攁nd with a hundred days come and gone, consolidation will be all the more difficult from now on.

Public security and anticorruption were paramount issues during the campaign, helping Bolsonaro to rally a country buffeted by high rates of violent crime and frustrated after years of corruption scandals implicating wide swaths of the Brazilian political class. The government鈥檚 marquee policy initiative in the area is Justice Minister S茅rgio Moro鈥檚 anti-crime, anti-corruption program of legislation.

Besides reforms such as allowing criminals to be imprisoned after one appeal, and facilitating plea bargains for criminals willing to provide information to prosecutors, the program borrows from Bolsonaro鈥檚 campaign rhetoric in making it possible for judges to reduce or vacate the sentences of police officers who due to the 鈥渆xcessive course of excusable fear, surprise, or violent emotion.鈥�

With police killings having risen compared to five years ago, controversy remains over whether lethal force employed by police forces is part of the problem or the part of the solution to Brazil鈥檚 security crisis鈥攁 debate which came to the fore again recently when soldiers an innocent musician in Rio de Janeiro in April.

Moro鈥檚 program is currently on hold until a pension reform bill can pass through the federal legislature, as Vice President Mour茫o confirmed during his talk at the 乐鱼 体育 in early April. Moreover it remains unclear exactly how much support Moro鈥檚 program commands among Brazilians. A Datafolha poll was interpreted by as demonstrating a majority of Brazilians were against key aspects of the program, but Moro by correctly pointing out its questions did not directly refer to his proposed legislation.

What was clear in the poll results, however, is that a majority of Brazilians are against the gun-ownership liberalization which Bolsonaro wasted no time in delivering once he assumed office. Fulfilling a campaign promise popular with his base of supporters, Bolsonaro signed a decree on January 15 that made it easier for Brazilians to . Support for the measure does not appear to extend far beyond his base. Datafolha has asked Brazilians whether they believe gun ownership ought to be prohibited since November 2013. The percentage who agreed dropped as low as 55 percent in June 2017, but has never fallen below half, and as of April has risen to .

Another key campaign promise under the heading of conservative values had to do with the 鈥渆ducation without party鈥� drive to rid public schools of perceived left-wing influence. An important area for rallying Bolsonaro鈥檚 conservative base, education has been a problem spot for the administration. Education Minister Ricardo V茅lez Rodr铆guez was buffeted by successive scandals, one involving to schools instructing teachers to film students reciting Bolsonaro鈥檚 campaign slogan, and found himself opposed by both associated with the administration and . Fired by Bolsonaro on April 5, he was replaced by Abraham Weintraub, an who served on the president鈥檚 transition team and had been working in the executive branch.

Less important for Bolsonaro鈥檚 base, but of vital importance for the economic future of the country, is pension reform. Draft legislation containing changes to Brazil鈥檚 pension system, authored by economy 鈥渟uper-minister鈥� Paulo Guedes, is a centerpiece of the government鈥檚 agenda to boost the Brazilian economy. Analysts agree it is necessary but not sufficient: it is long overdue and only a first step towards fiscal consolidation, but also a sine qua non for growth, preserving the potential of Paulo Guedes鈥檚 agenda of economic reform, and maintaining investor confidence. Pension reform, however, was not a key plank of Bolsonaro鈥檚 platform during the campaign last year, and voters appear to be over the measure.

Having raised onlookers鈥� hopes by a draft of pension reform legislation to Congress on February 20, Bolsonaro has not impressed with his follow-up. Bolsonaro and Justice Minister Moro in late March with the powerful Speaker of the House of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, clouding the future of pension reform passage. In Washington in mid-April after a bruising session of testimony to the Brazilian Congress that ended in shouting, Guedes the reform would pass before the end of the first semester of 2019 but admitted Bolsonaro himself was not 鈥渋n love with the pension reform.鈥� Passage by mid-year seems increasingly in doubt, as recently passage of the bill through a House committee came and only with modifications, while markets lost much of their enthusiasm.

Foreign policy is the area where the most conspicuous advances have been made, but even there much remains in flux. At a joint press conference in the Rose Garden, President Trump declared his intention to designate Brazil a major non-NATO ally. After decades of frostiness in the bilateral relationship, observers of U.S.鈥揃razil relations hope the strong alignment between Bolsonaro and President Trump in both the content and style of their politics can lay groundwork for stronger ties and provide mutual benefits that transcend political party and outlast both administrations.

As Trump pledged to support Brazil鈥檚 bid for membership in the OECD, these hopes rose. But as analysts warned, OECD membership for Brazil remains far off and will be reduced to a distant aspiration鈥攁long with the rest of Paulo Guedes鈥檚 agenda鈥攊f pension reform fails to pass in the near future. Bolsonaro鈥檚 full-throated defense of Trump in the Rose Garden, and his proclaimed assurance that Trump , however, raised fears that his taking sides in American politics could hurt chances for closer ties if the US presidency were to change hands in 2020.

No truly significant agreements were signed, but a one-year for American technology to be used at a Brazilian Air Force base at Alc芒ntara raised hopes for a longer-term deal that could see the American space industry cut costs by launching satellites from the Brazilian base, which is closer to space because of its proximity to the Equator. Long a in U.S.鈥揃razil relations, a previously struck Alc芒ntara deal foundered in the Brazilian legislature for largely ideological reasons during the presidency of Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva.

Looking back over Bolsonaro鈥檚 first three months in office, the trip to the United States stand out as a highlight, while chaos within the administration remains a lowlight. The biggest test remains the fate of the pension reform in the legislature, which is anything but clear. Whether it can pass by the end of the year in a relatively intact form will decide, perhaps more than any other single factor, whether these first hundred days will be remembered as halting steps towards achieving the administration鈥檚 policy goals, or as stumbles.

Image by Alan Santos via Ag锚ncia Brasil