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Greenland has announced its new coalition government, and it indicates that a cautious approach towards independence is the agreed policy. 

In February, then-Greenlandic Prime Minister Mute Bourup Egede determined the election date for the Inatsisartut (Parliament) and called for unity as it navigates a shifting domestic and international climate. However, Egede鈥檚 leading party Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) (People鈥檚 Party) and coalition party Siumut (Forward)鈥攖ogether the two main parties of Greenlandic government in recent years鈥攍ost their majority in Parliament.

Instead, two smaller parties, Demokraatit (The Democrats) and Naleraq (Point of Orientation)  securing approximately 30% and 25% of the votes, respectively.

The newly formed governing coalition is led by the Democrats and includes Siumut, IA, and Atassut (Solidarity). Together, they hold 23 of 31 seats in Parliament and account for 75% of the electoral vote. Only Naleraq, the party advocating for the most rapid transition to independence, remains outside.

The results in more detail

The Democrats, running as the centre-right opposition party, won the general election with  of the vote, pushing it into position as the largest current party. Democracy more than tripled their vote share, from 9.1% to 29.9%, and an increase from 3 to 10 seats in Parliament. This is a record for the party. Jens-Frederik Nielsen, leader of the Democrats, is now the youngest ever Prime Minister of Greenland at 33 years old. His effective campaign to turn around The Democrat鈥檚 electoral results has put him a strong position. As a former  badminton player, he brings competitiveness and commitment.

The two former coalition leaders dropped into third and fourth place, although they will be part of the new coalition government. The left-leaning social democratic party IA secured  of the vote and lost 5 seats in Parliament, dropping from 12 to 7 seats. The center-right Siumut party lost more than half its seats, falling from 10 to 4 seats. The vote share for Atassut (center-right) was relatively unchanged at around 7% and they retained their 2 seats. Naleraq doubled their vote share from 12% to 24.5% as well as their seats, from 4 to 8.

What influenced the results?

Although the resurgence in American interest in Greenland as a strategic partner and ongoing debates about the relationship with Denmark influenced Greenlandic politics leading up to the election, many domestic issues also shaped the results. These included fisheries, healthcare, pensions, services in the smaller settlements, and quality of life鈥攁 trend seen across many Western democracies. Personalities also loomed large in a small population and may have influenced results.

Well-known and highly popular politician Aki-Matilda Hoegh-Dam switched from Siumut to Naleraq shortly before the election, arguing that Siumut was not willing to work quickly enough towards independence. It appears that she took many voters with her as she ranked the second-most favored personal candidate in the popular vote, polling even higher than party leader Pele Broberg.

Of course, the independence issue remained significant. Although all parties support Greenlandic independence from Denmark in principle, they largely  and methods for transition. With the election results favoring the two parties at either end of the spectrum, this may indicate that Greenlanders themselves are divided on the best approach to independence.

However, it is important to note that independence was not the sole issue that determined the election results. Fisheries policy was likely a significant driver鈥� make up over 90% of Greenland鈥檚 exports鈥攁nd the party switch by Hoegh-Dam may also have been significant in Naleraq鈥檚 jump.

What is the path forward?

The 2009 Self-Government Act sets out a  for Greenland to move towards independence. The election results suggest there is no internal agreement on when and how that process should be triggered. Naleraq鈥檚 stated reason for withdrawing from the coalition talks was the unwillingness of the Democrats to begin formal negotiations.

The new governing coalition  titled 鈥淲e stand together for a safe and free Greenland that is developing鈥� (translation) sets out the main points of consensus and priority areas for the new Parliament. With regards to independence, the agreement commits to 鈥渢read carefully,鈥� with a focus on realistic planning. This moderate language is a good indicator that a sudden lurch towards independence should not be expected.

With regards to foreign policy, the coalition agreement establishes Greenland鈥檚 foreign policy as 鈥淕reenland is open for business鈥攏ot for sale.鈥� While there is no direct reference to the United States, this foreign policy direction鈥攁nd indeed, the title of the agreement鈥攁re themselves an answer to calls for American annexation of Greenland.

The issue of independence and relations with the United States, Denmark, and others will play out in due course, but what is clear from these elections is that Greenland remains determined to keep its affairs in its own hands. The formation of a broad governing coalition suggests former Prime Minister Egede鈥檚 call for Greenlandic unity in the face of external threats has succeeded, as the new government navigates its time in the global geopolitical spotlight.