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As discussions about potential negotiations on the war in Ukraine gain momentum, Russian officials and public figures are responding鈥攇enerally in positive ways. President Vladimir Putin has reportedly agreed to enter talks with the United States 鈥渋mmediately鈥� following a phone call with the US President Donald Trump on February 12, 2025. But while the Kremlin signals openness to negotiations, its underlying position suggests little has changed in Russia鈥檚 fundamental approach to the war.

Russian officials and state media struck a  on Thursday after President Donald Trump abandoned three years of US policy, announcing that he would likely meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to negotiate a peace deal in the nearly three-year war in Ukraine.
 

According to Putin, the key to 鈥攏ot just a ceasefire鈥攔equires addressing the 鈥渞oot causes鈥� of the conflict. However, the Kremlin  these 鈥渞oot causes鈥� as NATO鈥檚 eastward expansion, rather than Russia鈥檚 unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. This narrative allows Moscow to deflect attention from its own aggression while reinforcing broader security demands. Russia is not seeking peace on Ukraine鈥檚 terms but rather a settlement that legitimizes its territorial gains and reaffirms its sphere of influence.

Meanwhile, Russian officials, including Putin鈥檚 spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev, have outright  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky鈥檚 proposal to exchange occupied Ukrainian territory for areas held by Ukrainian forces in Russia鈥檚 Kursk Oblast. This signals that Moscow, at this point, is unwilling to engage in territorial compromises that might weaken its claims over annexed regions, particularly those it has declared as 鈥渘ew Russian territories.鈥�

Putin is assembling a team of veteran negotiators鈥攊ncluding Yuriy Ushakov, Sergey Naryshkin, and Kirill Dmitriev鈥攖o lead talks with US representatives, Bloomberg  Friday. The choice of these figures signals that Moscow views negotiations not as a path to genuine compromise, but as another means to advance its geopolitical objectives. Ushakov, a seasoned diplomat, and Naryshkin, head of Russia鈥檚 Foreign Intelligence Service, are deeply embedded in the country鈥檚 security establishment. , head of Russia鈥檚 sovereign wealth fund and a key player in economic policy, will likely focus on securing sanctions relief and Western economic concessions.

Kremlin insiders view the upcoming negotiations as far more than just a settlement over Ukraine. 鈥淏ased on Trump鈥檚 statements after his conversation with the Russian president, the stakes in dealing with Russia鈥攁nd his intentions鈥攇o well beyond Ukraine,鈥� , a pro-Putin foreign policy expert and MP, on social media. 鈥淭rump is not fixated on Ukraine. In this respect, he resembles Kennedy and Nixon, who understood the bigger picture and reached crucial agreements with Moscow that prevented nuclear war.鈥� 

Crucially, the Kremlin does not view Ukraine as its primary . In Moscow鈥檚 eyes, the war is a confrontation between Russia and the West, primarily the United States, with Ukraine playing a secondary role. This approach aligns with longstanding Russian narratives that deny Ukraine full sovereignty, portraying it instead as a Western proxy. It also suggests that any agreement Russia seeks will likely come in the form of a US-brokered settlement rather than direct negotiations with Kyiv.

Public sentiment in Russia reflects this complex dynamic. While  that 54 percent of Russians support starting negotiations, 71 percent oppose making any concessions to Ukraine. Majorities reject the idea of returning annexed territories or allowing Ukraine to join NATO, signaling that the Russian government faces little domestic pressure to offer meaningful compromises. These attitudes reinforce Putin鈥檚 belief that he can outlast Ukraine and its Western backers through sheer attrition. If war fatigue grows in Kyiv and among Western capitals, the Kremlin likely expects support for Ukraine to erode, leading to a deal more favorable to Russia鈥檚 interests.

Russian state media have embraced Trump鈥檚 announcement as a validation of Moscow鈥檚 long-standing claim that the war is a broader conflict between Russia and the West, rather than just Russia and Ukraine. Pro-government outlets are portraying the prospect of negotiations as a clear victory for the Kremlin. 鈥淶elensky is panic-stricken: Trump is preparing to gut Ukraine like a herring,鈥�  Moskovsky Komsomolets, a popular tabloid. 鈥淧utin has broken through the 鈥榠ron curtain鈥� the West tried to impose on Russia,鈥�  Ura.ru, a regional pro-government outlet. 鈥淧utin has won a diplomatic victory. The whole world is discussing Trump鈥檚 phone conversation with the Russian president,鈥�  the loyal web publication Lenta.ru.

Some pro-Putin analysts see a long-term US strategy aimed at driving a wedge between Russia and China behind Washington鈥檚 push to end the war. 鈥淭rump鈥檚 aspirations to halt the 鈥榮pecial military operation鈥� may be driven by a broader goal鈥攖o weaken future ties between China and Russia,鈥�  Sergey Karaganov, a professor at the Higher School of Economics and a vocal advocate of Russia鈥檚 preemptive nuclear use.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a rational calculation,鈥� Karaganov added. 鈥淏ut whether he can actually alienate Russia and China is another question. It鈥檚 also unclear how committed he is to improving relations with Russia. Right now, Trump is just breaking things. We鈥檒l see how he responds when he faces domestic resistance and doesn鈥檛 get the quick results he expects. This is just the beginning of the process.鈥�

For now, Russia鈥檚 official and pro-government messaging suggests that it is preparing for negotiations while maintaining its maximalist objectives. Putin鈥檚 strategy hinges on exploiting divisions in the West, prolonging the war until Ukrainian resistance weakens, and securing a settlement that cements Russia鈥檚 territorial gains. As talks take shape, the fundamental question remains whether negotiations will be a step toward genuine conflict resolution or merely the latest battlefield where Moscow seeks to impose its will.


The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.