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In Moscow, life continues with an air of striking normalcy. US President Donald Trump鈥檚 calls to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian war do not evoke urgency or a rush to compromise. Instead, the Kremlin and Russia鈥檚 elites see an opportunity in Trump鈥檚 push for a settlement鈥攐ne that allows them to maximize their gains while he remains preoccupied with reshaping US foreign policy and as America鈥檚 allies appear uncertain and fatigued.

Putin and his inner circle may be frustrated by the impact of sanctions and the struggles of Russia鈥檚 civilian economy. Yet, despite real economic pressures, Moscow has successfully insulated both the militarized sector of the economy and society from the direct consequences of the war. In this landscape, Putin has little incentive to seek immediate peace. For him, negotiations are not an offramp, but another tool to consolidate his position.

Layers of Insulation

Russia鈥檚 oil and gas revenues remain strong, with oil-related state budget proceeds  by nearly a third last year, driven by  and the country鈥檚 adaptation to international sanctions. War-related industries have been largely insulated from the economic strain affecting the rest of the country. The military sector, bolstered by wartime budgets and subsidized interest rates, remains untouched by the Central Bank鈥檚 record-high interest rates. Meanwhile, efforts to curb inflation fall almost entirely on the civilian economy, deepening its financial burden.

According to the Western narrative, Russia鈥檚 weakening economy and rising inflation should, in theory, erode domestic support for the war and eventually push the Kremlin toward compromise. However, this logic does not hold in autocracies, where the state has extensive tools to shield itself from political fallout. The Russian leadership has managed to insulate itself from the war鈥檚 consequences through financial injections, public opinion manipulation, and repression鈥攅nsuring that discontent remains fragmented and largely ineffective.

While economic pressures are real, they are not seen as . Russia鈥檚 economy remains in a precarious yet sustainable state鈥攚hat one of my interlocutors from Moscow described as 鈥渟teadily shaky.鈥� As a result, economic strain alone is unlikely to force the Kremlin into concessions in the foreseeable future.

A particularly crucial mechanism for shielding Russian society from the strains and psychological pressures of war is what can be described as 鈥�.鈥� While the war dominates state propaganda鈥攑ermeating schools, , and official rhetoric鈥攊t remains largely invisible in everyday urban life. Walking through the streets of Russian cities, one would hardly notice any war-related imagery beyond enlistment ads. The absence of overt wartime mobilization allows the majority of Russians to go about their daily lives largely unaffected.

This detachment extends to perceptions of those who fight in the war. Veterans are not widely celebrated as heroes because most of them are highly paid volunteers rather than drafted soldiers fighting for a national cause. Many are pardoned convicts, whose return to civilian life raises safety concerns rather than admiration. A majority of those polled by the independent polling project ExtremeScan,  of draft evaders. The war, for much of Russian society, remains an abstract event鈥攐ne that is happening elsewhere, affecting others, and requiring little personal engagement. This carefully maintained insulation is key to the Kremlin鈥檚 ability to sustain the war without provoking widespread public unrest.

All in all, the Kremlin has effectively insulated itself from both the economic and political pressure that wars tend to cause. Political dissent is contained through a combination of propaganda, repression, and a controlled information space, reinforcing the state鈥檚 resilience against external pressure.

Pressuring the Cracks in Putin鈥檚 Insulation

That said, Moscow does not have unlimited time to prolong the war. The relative economic stability of the past two years has been driven largely by non-market factors, such as war-related spending and state subsidies, which have significantly expanded the non-market sector of the economy. However, the costs of war and sanctions are steadily mounting, making the war effort increasingly expensive. Society is beginning to feel the strain, with inflation reaching  year-on-year in December 2024 and corporate debt continuing to rise. Some economists warn that rising debt levels could trigger a wave of bankruptcies and even a , though this remains more of a subject of debate rather than a consensus view.

Moscow sees Trump鈥檚 push for peace as a window of opportunity鈥攏ot to seek a permanent settlement, but to recalibrate Moscow鈥檚 position on the global stage. Putin seeks a summit with a US president to elevate his own profile. The meeting doesn鈥檛 need to be conclusive or even substantive to serve this purpose. The Kremlin views Trump鈥檚 pushy approach and skepticism toward traditional alliances as an opening to secure concessions without offering much in return. If negotiations do happen, they will not be about ending the war but about reasserting Russia鈥檚 global influence under the guise of diplomacy.

Moscow鈥檚 strategic priority is maintaining regime stability. Putin will push negotiations on his own terms, leveraging Trump鈥檚 foreign policy priorities to his advantage. He sees the shifting geopolitical landscape not as a moment for compromise but as an opportunity to secure gains while sustaining his hold on power. 

For now, Russia can sustain the conflict, but cracks are beginning to show. The mounting costs of war, inflation, rising corporate debt, and a financial system increasingly reliant on state intervention all point to vulnerabilities that Washington could exploit. The illusion of normalcy in Russian society depends on keeping the war at arm鈥檚 length鈥攕hielding both news and consequences of the war from the daily life of average Russians. Putin may not feel urgency now, but that does not mean pressure cannot be applied. 

One area where the U.S. can exert meaningful pressure is the humanitarian front. About  have been forcibly deported to Russia from occupied territories, and thousands of Ukrainian civilians remain missing or are illegally detained in violation of international law. At the same time, anti-war protesters and human rights advocates continue to face persecution and imprisonment. This is an issue that transcends politics鈥攐ne that few in the international community would dispute. If the U.S. were to make it a central focus of negotiations and diplomatic efforts, it could reshape the conversation and intensify pressure on Moscow. Even raising these issues forcefully and consistently on the global stage would heighten scrutiny, making it increasingly difficult for Russia to ignore or justify these violations.

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.