A blog of the Kennan Institute
President Zelensky鈥檚 risky trip to Washington, D.C., on December 21, 2022, was made possible by warming relations with the United States during the year. It also reflected Zelensky's keen awareness of American political fissures at a time when Ukraine's survivability relied in large part on the West鈥檚 sustained supply of weapons, munitions, and other types of aid, all spearheaded by the United States.
The timing of the visit鈥攊n the midst of a grinding fight in Bakhmut and mere days before the U.S. Congress was scheduled to vote on a that included tens of billions in emergency aid for Ukraine鈥攗nderscored the urgency of continuing U.S. support, 鈥渘ot as charity,鈥 President Zelensky said, 鈥渂ut an investment in global security.鈥 This language undoubtedly was intended to assuage in Congress by emphasizing the benefits of investing in Ukraine as a strategic partner over Ukraine鈥檚 mere survival as a sovereign state.
Indeed, over the past eleven months, the U.S.-Ukraine relationship has evolved into a new type of a partnership defined by a deeper strategic cooperation and a long-term commitment to a shared vision of European security.
Against the backdrop of the new phase in the war, marked by heavy losses and on both sides, Zelensky's plea for increased U.S. and allies鈥 support reflects higher strategic stakes in countering Russia鈥檚 and intensified as it digs in for a 鈥.鈥
The Evolution of American Support for Ukraine
Since Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the United States has significantly to Ukraine and remains the largest individual donor country. While more could always be done, the U.S. foreign policy establishment has proven to be agile and responsive to the new security environment triggered by Russian aggression and Ukraine鈥檚 evolving military and humanitarian needs.
The United States and its Western partners have been incrementally scaling up support for Ukraine鈥攁nd sanctions against Russia鈥攊n response to realities on the ground, most recently overcoming another self-imposed threshold by agreeing to provide Ukraine with and (joined in this effort by Germany and France) after months of rejecting Kyiv鈥檚 pleas. Moreover, this U.S. aid has been delivered at an .
The United States has also scaled up training for the Ukrainian military, including through at company and battalion levels; it has and secure communications; and it has assisted with humanitarian and economic needs, , and fixing the in Ukraine.
The main driving force behind the West鈥檚 increased support has been the Ukrainian people鈥檚 will to fight and proven effectiveness in doing so, in the context of Russia鈥檚 many miscalculations and mistakes that exposed of the Russian military establishment. Besides, Russia鈥檚 鈥 against the backdrop of of the Russian political leadership 鈥 have further exposed the criminal nature and intentions of the Putin regime and given the West a new sense of urgency in stopping the Russian military machine.
That said, while both American and other Western leaders have repeatedly said that they would support Ukraine 鈥渁s long as it takes,鈥 the West appears to be trying to walk a fine line between helping Ukraine win and not tipping the scales so much as to provoke a nuclear response from Russia. Despite the Kremlin鈥檚 nuclear saber-rattling in response to the West鈥檚 shipments of advanced weaponry to Ukraine, however, Western officials estimate that of Russia deploying a nuclear weapon remains low.
As the war approaches the one-year mark, military and other support for Ukraine has proven neither futile, nor prohibitively costly, nor unpopular, nor escalatory. Not only has Western support helped Ukraine push Russia back, diminish Russia鈥檚 combat power, and discredit the Kremlin regime, it has also elevated the U.S.-Ukraine strategic relationship to new levels of commitment to seeing this war effort through to a mutually beneficial outcome.
Ukraine: A New Kind of Partner
Among the many factors that have shaped the contours of the new strategic relationship between the United States and Ukraine, four stand out.
First, Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally transformed a regional security environment and international relations. This transformation calls for new forms of partnerships and security arrangements. There is no going back to a prewar order and status quo, as have suggested. The world has already paid a high price for giving Putin the benefit of the doubt and counting on his pragmatic calculations to cooperate with the West in the interest of Russia鈥檚 economy and national security. On the contrary: Putin has shown no signs of in Ukraine and has only intensified his .
As strategic partners in this new security environment, not only do Kyiv and Washington share the same values but, as President Biden , he and Zelensky "share the exact same vision" for peace, which includes the United States鈥 commitment to helping Ukraine defend itself. Indeed, currently there are no other two countries whose collective contributions have been more instrumental in fighting Russia, and ultimately shaping the environment for long-term regional stability.
Second, over the course of the past year, Ukraine鈥檚 strategic value has increased as a function of its impressive military performance. The modern weapons and training provided to Ukraine by Western partners, the discipline and morale of Ukraine鈥檚 military, the quality of its commanders, and a proven ability to execute large-scale combined arms operations have propelled Ukraine into the ranks of in the world.
But while the West鈥檚 support has been essential in fending off the Russian aggression, so far Ukraine has borne a disproportionate amount of the burden of fighting a country that all NATO members consider . Ukraine is fighting for its sovereignty and independence, but in doing so, it has also degraded the Kremlin鈥檚 ability to use its military power against the collective West. Russia鈥檚 aggression has prompted NATO to , but the Alliance鈥檚 direct involvement in the war with Russia is a scenario NATO members will try to avoid (as will Russia). This means that the West will continue relying on the strength and performance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to undermine Russia鈥檚 power for collective security.
Third, and relatedly, Ukraine鈥檚 strategic value also lies in being the glue that has kept Europe together. Support for Ukraine, while , has been the single most unifying issue for the West. Ukraine鈥檚 successful resistance has also bought European governments valuable time to reconfigure their defense strategies and , as well as . The EU has also been in burden sharing with the United States by stepping up military, financial, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. As a consensus-driven institution, the EU has exceeded even member states鈥 own expectations of their ability to put their differences aside and move forward with key policy changes, from sanctions to military aid.
Fourth, Ukraine鈥檚 courageous fight and its ability to galvanize Western support have had positive strategic effects on discrediting and undermining the power of Russia-friendly authoritarian regimes, such as China, America鈥檚 main strategic rival. While China has not openly condemned the Russian aggression, it has from providing material support to sanctions-hit Russia and has a negotiated end to hostilities. It is unclear whether the war in Ukraine will affect China鈥檚 aggressive posturing toward Taiwan. What is clear is that China no longer sees Russia as either a reliable or a capable strategic partner to hedge against the United States.
In light of Ukraine鈥檚 increased strategic significance, U.S. assistance to Ukraine has already been a smart investment when viewed from a purely perspective. No matter how this relationship is configured, the two countries share agency both in the war effort and in shaping the strategic environment for future negotiations.
The Future of U.S. Support
Despite some voices of opposition in the U.S. Congress and calls for of budgetary spending on Ukraine, there are no concrete grounds to think that support for Ukraine will dwindle. In particular, the Republican leadership in the Senate, along with top Republicans on key committees such as the Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees, remain of Ukraine.
If history is any indication, it is not unusual for war funding to be a source of . However, American aid to Ukraine, while significant, is still abysmal relative to the costs incurred in other military conflicts in which the United States was directly or indirectly involved. Nor does support for Ukraine subtract directly from domestic programs. One could also assume that the costs the United States would incur in the long term with a defeated Ukraine and emboldened Russia could be exponentially higher.
Besides, recent public opinion polls show a substantial reservoir of among the American public. The more Ukraine shows that it can win, the more likely it is that U.S. policymakers and the general public will stick with the war effort to help Ukraine cement its recent gains and keep up the pressure on Russia.
Ukraine鈥檚 Resolve
Some voices within the U.S. foreign policy establishment have allegedly been . In his address to Congress, Zelensky reinforced the relayed earlier, namely, that Ukraine had sufficient forward units and reserves to sustain defensive and offensive operations so long as the West continued its weapons and ammunition supplies, and that Ukraine would not accept any negotiations at this time. Negotiations are nowhere in sight in the foreseeable future as neither side believes it has achieved its minimum objectives and both sides believe they can win.
While military experts assess that Russia will struggle to restore , Ukrainian officials have in the coming weeks. Putin recently , coinciding with Orthodox Christmas, evidently to give Russian troops time to resupply and regroup. The Ukrainians . Meanwhile, Russian forces have continued striking Ukraine鈥檚 energy grid and residential areas in a bid to drain Ukraine's resources, as well as instill fear and shatter morale.
But, so far, Putin鈥檚 brazen attacks have failed to terrorize Ukrainians into submission and instead have galvanized them to greater resilience and solidarity. Regardless of how the war plays out, Ukraine has already dealt Russia a strategic defeat. And as the war grinds on, the United States and its Western partners must give proper recognition to鈥攁nd investment in鈥攖he new strategic relationship with Ukraine, and view Ukraine鈥檚 victory and further integration with the West as attainable and desirable goals.
The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.
Author

Adjunct Professor of Political Science and National Security, University of New Haven
Kennan Institute
The Kennan Institute is the premier US center for advanced research on Eurasia and the oldest and largest regional program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The Kennan Institute is committed to improving American understanding of Russia, Ukraine, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the surrounding region through research and exchange. Read more
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