乐鱼 体育

This edition of Preventing North Korea鈥檚 Nuclear Breakout includes an updated Executive Summary section that incorporates subsequent developments since its initial publication in February 2017 at the advent of the Trump administration. The monograph draws on Litwak鈥檚 previous analysis of North Korea鈥檚 nuclear challenge in Outlier States: American Strategies to Change, Contain, or Engage Regimes, published in 2012, which was the third in a series of books on the normative challenge to international order posed by 鈥渞ogue states.鈥�

North Korea became a nuclear-weapon state in 2006, but now, little more than a decade later, is on the verge of a strategic breakout. The North鈥檚 ability to miniaturize nuclear warheads and mount them on intercontinental ballistic missiles is a game changer for the United States. The Trump administration assumed office having made the avowed commitment to block North Korea鈥檚 crossing of this important threshold鈥攖he ability to strike the U.S. homeland with a nuclear weapon.

This study assesses the available U.S. policy options, including the use of military power, and makes the case for a pivot to diplomacy through a strategy of 鈥渃oercive engagement鈥� to achieve a feasible objective. The June 2018 summit meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korea鈥檚 鈥渟upreme leader鈥� Kim Jong-un has created a new political dynamic. A near-term full rollback of the North鈥檚 nuclear and missile capabilities is not a realistic possibility. A freeze agreement constraining those capabilities鈥攖hat is, bending the curve鈥攊s what this latest round of diplomacy might aim to achieve.