乐鱼 体育

Forty years on, relations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran remain a very fraught affair. The past tells a story characterized far more by confrontation and competition than cooperation, but that is certainly not the whole story. What of prospects for the future?

Three veteran analysts and policy practitioners discussed the evolution of the relationship and where it鈥檚 headed.

Selected Quotes

Robin Wright

鈥淥ne of the other things that we haven't been paid a lot of attention to but, in many ways, is a real deal breaker, is the effort to get new banking regulations. It sounds really obtuse, but it鈥檚 actually tremendously important. And it鈥檚 trying to get Iranian banks to comply with the international banking standards that were imposed after 9-11 to eliminate money laundering and to get Iran鈥檚 banks to tell where their money came from, not just last transaction but all the way back. And this was critical in keeping the Europeans on board and sustaining the nuclear deal.鈥�

鈥淭his is a time when, as they marked the 40th anniversary, that there are a lot of questions about the future direction of Iran. And this goes back to the early days of the revolution, and the question that was on the table--- Is Iran, after the ouster of the Shah , a country the 鈥業slamic Republic of Iran鈥�, first and foremost, Islamic an Islamic state, or is it first and foremost, a Republic? And that debate is played out over the years in many ways.鈥�

鈥淭he turning point of the deterioration of the relations [between the U.S. and Iran] was not the revolution itself, it was after the U.S. took in the Shah and there were fears in Iran among the revolutionaries at a volatile time, fragile state, that the United States was intent to putting the Shah back on the throne. So that鈥檚 the moment, and that鈥檚 where you find the tensions between these two countries have emanated.鈥�  

Michael Singh

鈥淎nd I think, importantly, this [Iran] wasn鈥檛 a region like Europe or Asia where gradually we鈥檙e sort of handing off responsibility to allies. It鈥檚 a region where largely we have had to do it ourselves for the most part and haven鈥檛 had those local allies to be able to sort of pass responsibility to, which is something kind of frustrates the past couple of presidents, I think in particular.鈥�  

鈥淲hen it comes to access for the United States in the region, obviously, the Iranians have talked about wanting the U.S. out of the region, and that鈥檚 about as diametrically opposed to what we鈥檙e trying to accomplish as you can get. So I think it鈥檚 less a matter of interests per se because often times, people in this relationship will talk about 鈥榳hy can鈥檛 we get along?鈥� Because we have these overlapping interests, things like-- counter-narcotics in Afghanistan, things like sort of ensuring that there鈥檚 stable government in Iraq or something like that. It鈥檚 less a matter of interest, and more a matter of how are we pursuing those interests?鈥�  

鈥淔rankly, not to sort of end on a pessimistic note but when you talk about the Middle East, it tends to be inevitable. I don鈥檛 see any real prospect for change here because what I think it will take is not just the United States deciding we sort of want to pull back and shift our attention elsewhere, it will take, I think, Iran, deciding that it wants to pursue a fundamentally different strategy in the region.鈥� 

Robert Malley

鈥淏oth Democrats and Republicans have engaged in coercion and engagement, and both have failed. I mean, this is a clear case of bipartisan fail 鈥� the verdict is clear 鈥� if the goal was to have a normal relationship with Iran.鈥� 鈥淭here鈥檚 also a current dynamic and unique features of the region, and of Iran in the region, and the U.S. in the region鈥� [It鈥檚] a deeply polarized region鈥� and a deeply polarized region in which Iran wants to play a bigger regional role... and a region in which the U.S. has deep strategic interests.... So you combine those three, and Iran being on the other side of the equation vis-a-vis the U.S. most of these issues. You don鈥檛 have that with North Korea.鈥�
 鈥淩ight now, let鈥檚 at least prevent things from getting worse, prevent escalation, which to this day you could happen. I don鈥檛 think either the United States or Iran is pining for war, but in a state where we have no diplomacy, no diplomatic connections, with all the reasons I just described it 鈥� so polarized and so unified at the same time 鈥� anything could happen at any time, in Yemen, in Syria, in Iraq, in the Persian Gulf鈥� and could lead to confrontation that would involve the U.S. and Iran directly.鈥�