乐鱼 体育

Last week鈥檚 terror attack in northern Sinai surpassed in scale anything the government of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has encountered to date in its battle with Islamic jihadis. Beyond the sheer magnitude of the loss of life, what is the significance of the attack and the implications for Egypt鈥檚 security, politics, and governance? What does the attack tell us about the operational capacity of jihadi terror groups in Sinai and throughout the country? Why has the Egyptian government failed to such an extent in its counterterrorism campaign?

In this conversation, three analysts and scholars of Egypt consider these and related issues.

Key Quotes
 

Aaron David Miller

鈥淐learly, this administration came in with a determination to improve what I am sure that they perceived as the dysfunctional and tense relations, not just between the U.S. and Egypt under the Obama administration, but also a certain measure of dysfunction between Washington, Riyadh and Jerusalem and those relationships seem to have evolved over the past ten months. There still appears to be a certain degree of prickliness and tension between the U.S. and Egypt.鈥�

Michele Dunne

鈥淭his is not only going on in Sinai. Egypt has a very serious terrorism problem and it is taking place in mainland Egypt too, although not with the intensity of Sinai. There are militant groups who have affiliated with ISIS and some of the other groups with their own names and identities that are operating in the Nile valley.鈥�

鈥淭he real problem here, I think, is the need for the Egyptian government to get the cooperation of as many Egyptians as possible against these terrorist organizations and the failure of the Egyptian government to get that cooperation so far. 鈥�

鈥淭here鈥檚 a problem of imprisonment, of torture, of extrajudicial killing, of enforced disappearances and it is well documented that this is leading a certain small number of those young people to turn to violence as the only solution鈥� In addition to that there is an intelligence problem.鈥�

鈥淚 want to mention that I think that 2018 promises to be potentially quite a tense year in Egypt for a number of reasons. Unfortunately, we see no sign of violence dying down and we do not know what the effect of military victories against ISIS in Sinai, Iraq, etc. will be on the insurgency in Egypt and whether we will see Egyptians who fought in these insurgencies trying to return to terrorist groups inside of Egypt.鈥�

Amy Austin Holmes

鈥淚n my humble opinion, I think the Egyptian authorities could learn something from the experience of liberating Mosul鈥t is important to point out that Mosul was liberated because of military cooperation, but also because NGOs were allowed to operate in Erbil. Think tanks like the Middle East Research Institute were allowed to operate in Erbil and publish critical reports about politically sensitive issues like the operations in Mosul... There are academic conferences held in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah鈥here serving military officers from the Iraqi army and the Kurdish Peshmerga would be invited to take part in panels and openly discuss and debate security issues with journalists, academics, policymakers from the United States, Europe, and the Middle East鈥his type of academic freedom is unthinkable right now in Egypt.鈥�

鈥淚鈥檓 afraid that the Egyptian authorities are denying themselves of the very expertise that they need in order to defeat the Islamic State affiliate鈥檚 in the Sinai鈥� I believe this is, as Michele and Andrew mentioned, an intelligence problem鈥攖o defeat an insurgency you need good intelligence and you also need good expertise of investigative journalist and academics鈥nd this is something that I think the Egyptian authorities should rethink their approach to academic freedom of the press鈥︹��

Andrew Miller

鈥淢ost estimates put the group [ISIS in Sinai] between 600 and 1500鈥攑robably the best estimate is somewhere between 800 and 1200. The group is largely comprised of Bedouin鈥攚ho are native to the Sinai Peninsula鈥攖here are a few Bedouin from Gaza because of the continuous nature of the groups operating there and perhaps a few foreign fighters.鈥�

鈥淭he roots of the group are in an insurgency in the Sinai in the mid-2000s. There was a group at the time called Tawhid wal-Jihad that conducted some high profile attacks in Sharm El Sheikh and Taba鈥攎ajor tourist destinations鈥his particular organization was founded as Ansar Bait al-Maqdis, which loosely translates to "supporters or champions of Jerusalem" in 2011. At first they were primarily focused on attacking Israel鈥攍argely through lobbing rockets into Israeli territory from the Sinai鈥攂ut in 2013 with the removal of Mohammed Morsi as President, the group began to refocus on Egyptian security forces and the Egyptian state.鈥�

Shafik Gabr

鈥淪tability and security is critical for Egypt. Not only for Egypt, but if Egypt goes鈥� the region goes. Therefore, there has been a focus on stability and security.鈥�

鈥淚f you combine Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and the UAE, they all would fit inside Sinai and the threat that Egypt has is not just in Sinai, but it is important that it is on the (1,200 km) Libyan border. Unless Libya itself is stabilized [Egypt cannot be]鈥ecause weapons are being smuggled from Libya and terrorists cross into Egypt鈥he key elements have to be security/stability to be able to build a better engagement, a better democracy, and more attention to human rights. But without stability and security, I don鈥檛 think we can be able to move on the other issues as much as we would want to.鈥�