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Summary of the Conversation

As the crisis in Crimea continues to escalate, experts are asking themselves whether we are seeing a reemergence of the Cold War. The UN Security Council, with the exception of Russia, recently condemned the Crimean referendum 鈥� which reportedly passed with 97% of the vote 鈥� to secede from Ukraine. Further, Russian soldiers continue to occupy Crimea and are amassing soldiers along the Ukrainian border, poised to move into other Russian leaning towns.

Speaking from Kyiv, after recently returning from Crimea, Chris Miller says that on the ground, 鈥渋t feels like a war is brewing鈥� the Ukrainian Government is mobilizing its troops.鈥� U.S. sanctions imposed against Russian and Crimean officials are interpreted by many in Ukraine as 鈥渢oo soft鈥� and failing to target policymakers in Putin鈥檚 inner circle. In Crimea, ethnic Ukrainians and Tatars are fearful and fleeing to Western Ukraine while the ethnic Russian majority supports Russian integration, believing that it will provide a more stable life, better wages, and greater opportunities. This has led to the real fear that Russia will further invade Ukrainian territory and occupy additional Russian leaning areas 鈥� something many believe would demand a military response from Ukraine.

In Russia, Sergey Utkin reports a return of Soviet-era mentality among Russia鈥檚 senior policymakers. These Russian conservatives, whom Mr. Utkin referred to as 鈥渘ew imperialists,鈥� pose a threat both to Europe and the world as they push to gain global power through force. The current success Russian forces have had in Crimea, where the majority of people have welcomed Russian annexation, have only bolstered the Kremlin鈥檚 confidence in its policies and could set the stage for similar actions in other former Soviet republics. Mr. Utkin believes that sanctions will do little to impact Russian policy. This crisis is the product of Russian unilateralism, a rejection of Western influence, and the reemergence of Cold War self-reliance.

Ambassador Oleksandr Chalyi has not lost all hope for a diplomatic solution. However, should Russia decide to annex the Crimean territory, it would, in his mind, signal a 鈥減oint of no return鈥� and move Ukraine towards 鈥渨ar preparation with Russia.鈥� The repercussions of this regional conflict would have a global impact and reinstate Cold War economic and armed tensions around the world. Therefore, it is vital in Amb. Chalyi鈥檚 opinion that the U.S. and Russia come together in Brussels and work under the guidance of the UN to immediately work towards a diplomatic solution. World powers are now faced with two opportunities: 鈥渃onclude formal peace, which puts an end to the Cold War鈥� or further escalate tensions and enter a prolonged global conflict.

It is clear to all observers on the ground, both in Ukraine and Russia, tensions are reaching a tipping point. If world leaders do not act immediately, then they risk the creation of a regional war between Ukraine and Russia, European instability, and the reemergence of Cold War tensions globally. Leaders must act now or brace for years of conflict.