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The resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri is threatening again to plunge Lebanon into political and economic crisis or worse. A number of developments, including longstanding but growing tensions between Iran and Hezbollah and Saudi Arabia may presage a deteriorating regional situation that could draw Lebanon as well as Israel into the fray.

Three veteran observers of Lebanese and regional politics analyzed these and related developments on the precipice of another period of potential turbulence in Middle Eastern politics.

This event is being presented as part of the Lebanon Ideas Forum, a partnership between the Middle East Program at the 乐鱼 体育 and . 

Key Quotes

Aaron David Miller

鈥淚n a normal world... a secretary of state鈥檚 comments might carry some influence. In this case, I think they carry almost none, and until the president and whoever is crafting 鈥� DoD, most likely Mr. Mattis 鈥� our approach to Lebanon, I think that any threats from the United States are meaningless.鈥�

鈥淎gain, I ask the question, what kind of assets, other than economic boycotts, do the Saudis really have to compete with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, in Yemen, in Syria, and Iraq? They just don鈥檛 have the horses to pull the wagon.鈥� 

Hanin Ghaddar

鈥淸The land bridge] will unify the Shia. For people who are supportive of Hezbollah, this will definitely be a big deal for them, but people who already have questions and doubts about Hezbollah鈥檚 role in Syria, about the Iranian role in Syria 鈥� for them, this is going to be very important for their Shia identity. In a way, it鈥檚 dangerous, because every Shia along the bridge in each of these countries will be a Shia first.鈥�

鈥淭his is not going to be another war between Hezbollah and Israel. This is going to be a war against Iran鈥� An attack against Hezbollah means the Quds Force army in the region will be one. It鈥檚 something that we need to take into consideration.鈥�

Bassel F. Salloukh

鈥淚n Beirut, the main question is: if we are now heading to a kind of a confrontation in Lebanon, then what are the possible scenarios? I think it ranges over a whole spectrum of anything from complete political paralysis, whereby Hariri might be allowed to come back just to offer his formal resignation, but he would not have a new cabinet formed, and this would put the country on political pause, if not paralysis, for the foreseeable future; proxy, sectarian conflict in the country, which would be triggered by, you know, agents or fifth columns; or 鈥� and this is the fear of most Lebanese 鈥� that Lebanon might become what it was in the period immediately after the assassination of Rafic Hariri, with the bombings and insecurity and so on.鈥�

Paul Salem

鈥淭he position from the State Department was strong support for the prime minister, for the Lebanese army, for the Lebanese state, indirectly sort of going against the Saudi position, I would say, on this, but it鈥檚 still an open question 鈥� where will the president end up on this question?鈥�

鈥淚 think scenarios for Lebanon are generally鈥� quite bleak. I don鈥檛 expect Hezbollah or Iran to back down. I don鈥檛 think their investment in Yemen is working and it is a historic, strategic weak point that they鈥檝e been able to exploit. It is tremendous leverage that they鈥檙e going to be able to build against Saudi Arabia that they can hold over them for decades to come. I don鈥檛 think they鈥檙e going to give it up for, you know, 鈥淟ebanese stability鈥�, so I think we鈥檙e going towards some kind of a showdown.鈥�

鈥淲e鈥檙e really in a completely new Middle East, which will not be a new stability; it will be a new series of confrontations and wars. We鈥檝e already seen the Sunni-Shia wars that have been going on. They will continue to go on for years or decades to come. And obviously, Israel is not comfortable with any of this and we鈥檙e going to see some of that as well.鈥�