Syria and the Outside Powers: What They Want and Can They Have It?
The Syrian civil war is many overlapping conflicts, including the competition and cooperation among outside powers vying to protect their interests, often at the expense of Syria鈥檚 sovereignty. What are Russian, Iranian, Turkish, Israeli, and American objectives in Syria, and can they achieve them? Four analysts of Syria and the region addressed the issue of outside powers and the future of the country.
Selected Quotes
Aaron David Miller
鈥淎s we鈥檝e watched the horror and tragedy of the Syrian civil war unfold over the course of the last seven years, the stage has been set now for some time, I suspect, for an expanding role by outsiders.鈥
鈥淭he array of external actors seems to be a kind of a coalition of the unwilling 鈥 the cynical, the disinterested, the distracted, and the divided 鈥 determined above all to ensure that their interests take precedence over the idealized conception of the free, independent, pluralistic, and confessionally-balanced Syria鈥 It鈥檚 no wonder the Syrian civil war has endured for so long.鈥
鈥淭he very reason [the U.S.] got involved in Syria in a kinetic way has nothing to do with the Assad regime. It had to do with what was perceived to be the potential threat of a transnational terrorist group creating a quasi-caliphate and using the most brutal and gruesome of methods and posing a potential threat to the continental United States 鈥 which is still, arguably, the reason we鈥檙e there.鈥
David Pollock
鈥淯ntil now, compared to Russia or Iran or Turkey, Israel鈥檚 involvement in Syria has been relatively limited, but there鈥檚 a very good chance that it鈥檚 going to get bigger as the next few months and years proceed.鈥
鈥淓ven looking back at Israel鈥檚 policy over the last seven years, Israel has intervened in small ways, but important ways, in the Syrian conflict in order to secure what it sees as its basic interests.鈥
鈥淚ran and Hezbollah continue to pour money and weapons and people into increasingly sensitive areas right near Israel in Syrian territory, and there is no sign, according to the best Israeli and American expert assessments, that limited airstrikes of the kind that we鈥檝e seen up until now are going to score more than tactical successes against those potential enemies.鈥
Amy Austin Holmes
鈥淚 witnessed myself how families, for example, were trying to get family members out of Afrin as it was slowly being encircled by hostile forces. Smugglers are charging about a thousand dollars per person to get people out of Afrin.鈥
鈥淓rdogan claims that this intervention is about targeting the YPG. In fact, it goes much further than that and there are much more serious consequences, because obviously, the civilian population is also being targeted, not just the YPG.鈥
鈥淭he civilian population has suffered. There are 150,000 鈥 possibly 200,000 鈥 people that have fled just from Afrin, but not only are the civilians being targeted; this local model of self-governance they have created is also under assault.鈥
Robin Wright
鈥淥ne of the interesting things that has happened because of Syria, and also because of policy recently, is that this has developed into a strategic partnership 鈥 and they are very unlikely allies, given the long history of animosity between Russia, the old Soviet Union, and Iran.鈥
鈥淪yria, from Iran鈥檚 perspective, is, in many ways, a tool 鈥 an instrument 鈥 to protect the Shi鈥檌tes of Lebanon. It is an intermediary, geographically, and it is a tool, politically. There is very little invested in Bashar Assad. There is a lot invested in Syria as a property for the Iranians. And that鈥檚 why they will invest so much.鈥
鈥淚ran鈥檚 role has grown. The greater the price they pay, the greater the pressure to have something to show for it.鈥
Paul du Quenoy
鈥淩ussian interests in Syria are very much a moving target.鈥
鈥淩ussia wants to have the maximum possible effect in Syria, but with the minimum possible liability in terms of losses that they have to explain to their public and also the potential for confrontation with the West.鈥
鈥淚 really don鈥檛 think Russia has achieved its stated goals: ISIS was eradicated by somebody else; resolving the question in the regime鈥檚 favor has been elusive; and the future importance that you see in the diplomacy doesn鈥檛 suggest any sustainability for any unilateral Russian solution, or even a solution that has a significant Russian role.鈥
Event Sponsors
Speakers
Associate Professor of History, American University of Beirut
Research Professor of International Affairs and Acting Director of the聽Foreign Area Officers Program, George Washington University
Moderator
Hosted By
Kennan Institute
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