乐鱼 体育

This panel addressed a number of questions related to the April 16 Turkish constitutional referendum: Can the European-Turkish migration deal last? How might upcoming national elections in several European countries affect European ties with Turkey? What could cause the EU to freeze or end Turkey鈥檚 accession process? Is Erdogan willing to abandon Turkey鈥檚 EU membership bid or follow through with his threat to end the migration deal? Can the EU and Turkey find a way forward?

Key Quotes

Henri J. Barkey

 鈥淲hy is it that this kind of [anti-EU] attitude can take hold so quickly? What is the long-term damage being done? To me, this is very much a sign that Turkey has abandoned Europe.鈥�

Michelle Egan

鈥淭here needs to be a credible [EU] response to the referendum. The accession criteria are built on the Copenhagen criteria, on a credible membership policy. This is about conditionality, meeting the requirements 鈥� and it鈥檚 not just sending a signal about EU credibility to Turkey, but to other applicants down the road.鈥�

鈥淲e have to think about what to do, and I think the relationship at this point 鈥� in energy, in migration, in trade and economics 鈥� could be rather transactional.鈥�

Aykan Erdemir

鈥淓rdogan is a soccer player, and as a soccer player, he knows the best defense is offense. Following the referendum, on the EU front, be ready for Erdogan鈥檚 soccer tricks. That is, you will see more and more Turkish offense. I鈥檓 not just talking about Erdogan calling Germans 鈥淣azis鈥� or even [calling] the Dutch 鈥淣azis.鈥� I鈥檓 talking about a full-scale assault through government-funded NGOs, through quasi- and also state institutions鈥� through Turkey鈥檚 support for political parties in Bulgaria and elsewhere鈥� so you will see more of this.鈥�

鈥淚t鈥檚 not posturing, trust me. It鈥檚 pivoting. Turkey is drifting slowly but surely, and there is a game plan. I don鈥檛 call it 鈥榙rift鈥� often because it鈥檚 not a drift on its own, it鈥檚 not the winds. There is a captain and the captain is Erdogan. The captain has a clear, clear roadmap. He knows what he wants for Turkey, he knows what he wants for Turkish society, he knows what he wants for Turkish and Muslim diasporas in the EU.鈥� 

Constanze Stelzenmueller

鈥淭he Europeans think now, and will continue to think, that it is in their and Turkey鈥檚 interest for this tipping point not to arrive in public view. In other words, we are going to spend a lot of time finessing this. And if Erdogan and his team are remotely rational actors, they will collude in this.鈥�

鈥淣obody鈥檚 going to break off [the EU accession talks], because, very simply, that would push the ball, which is currently in Erdogan鈥檚 court, back into the EU鈥檚 court, and nobody鈥檚 going to do that. But they already are de-facto frozen.鈥�

Event Summary

Three experts discussed the future of EU-Turkey relations following the April 16 Turkish constitutional referendum and how it could affect ties with the European Union going forward.

On April 24, 2017 the Middle East Program at the 乐鱼 体育 hosted an event 鈥淲hat is the Future of EU-Turkey Relations?鈥� with Constanze Stelzenmuller, Inaugural Robert Bosch senior fellow on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution; Michelle Egan, Global Fellow at the 乐鱼 体育; and Aykan Erdemir, Senior Fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former member of the Turkish Parliament. Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the 乐鱼 体育, moderated the discussion.

Stelzenmuller addressed the question of what would happen to the EU-Turkey relationship if EU accession talks were suspended or ended. She said she did not foresee talks breaking off, but they are instead 鈥渄e facto frozen.鈥� Stelzenmuller noted that as of December 2016, there have been no ongoing negotiations and they are unlikely to restart under current conditions. In response to Turkey-NATO relations, Stelzenmuller reflected on the possibility of Turkey remaining a functioning and trustworthy member of NATO despite its recent authoritarian turn. She also referred to the upcoming national elections in some EU countries, including Germany, and their effect on EU-Turkey relations. Stelzenmuller believes the German-Turkish community is in a state of political soul-searching with where their political allegiance lies with regard to the German-Turkish relationship. Furthermore, Stelzenmuller said Germany has not done enough to promote integration of the Turkish community. She also pointed out that Turks living in Germany have been a diplomatic asset that Turkey did not understand it had, as many are leaders in German politics, culture, and art and helped shape the country.

Egan provided a European perspective on the EU-Turkey relationship and how that has been affected by the current internal crises faced by the EU, such as the refugee crisis, elections, and Brexit. Second, Egan pointed out the radical populist challenges in Europe and the impact such challenges would have on various populist elections. Third, the EU enlargement process with Turkey should not overshadow the ongoing enlargement process with other prospective member states. The last point Egan made was regarding the strategic relevance of the EU-Turkey dynamic, in terms of the security field, the energy field, and the economy. Looking to the future, Egan proposed three focal points of mutual interest: the modernization of the EU and Turkey鈥檚 customs union, the integration of energy markets on the bilateral and multilateral levels, and migration resulting from an influx of refugees and asylum seekers that puts pressure on Turkey鈥檚 domestic labor market.

Erdemir started his discussion by posing five questions: Would it be better for Turkey to be a part of the EU? What is Erdogan鈥檚 new EU game plan? Are Erdogan鈥檚 attitudes posturing or pivoting? Since the accession process is not going anywhere, is there any loss for Turkey? And, what is the root cause of the failure of Turkey鈥檚 accession? Regarding the first question, Erdemir said that it would be beneficial for Turkey to join the EU rather than stay out of it. Second, Erdemir said that Erdogan鈥檚 game plan would entail an ideological assault on Europe through the establishment of small political parties and government-funded NGOs or quasi and state institutions like DITIB鈥擳urkey鈥檚 Islamic Union in Europe. For the third question, Erdemir said that Erdogan鈥檚 attitudes are pivoting away from the transatlantic alliance and transatlantic values. Regarding the fourth question, Erdemir believes that even though accession talks are not going anywhere, they still matter for Turkey because the EU has dividends not only for members, but for accession countries. Lastly, the root cause of Turkey鈥檚 accession failure was its inability to envision a future for the EU to include the Europeans and the Turks.

By Oumama Kabli, Middle East Program