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The Trump administration鈥檚 efforts to re-negotiate NAFTA continue amidst uncertainty and growing concern whether the parties will be able to conclude talks successfully. Several major issues are still pending resolution, so the NAFTA talks have been extended through the first quarter of 2018, including a negotiating round in Montreal in late January.

With such significant conceptual gaps between the parties, the future of the agreement is in question鈥攂ut what is truly at stake? What would a post-NAFTA world look like? To analyze the potential impact of withdrawal on job growth, competitiveness, and geopolitics, the 乐鱼 体育 is partnering with the Council of the Americas to co-host a discussion with city mayors, former ambassadors and business leaders from the three NAFTA countries. We hope you will join us for this important conversation about the future of the region.

Selected Quotes
 

Eric Farnsworth

鈥淣AFTA works. It was an experiment when initially negotiated, and the agreement can usefully be updated and improved that鈥檚 true, but just think how far and how fast the global economy has moved since 1994鈥ut NAFTA has done what it has been designed to do, which is to increase trade and investment among all three parties of the agreement, including Canada, Mexico and the United States. And now it should be updated to incorporate the advance in the global economy.鈥�

鈥淪imply put, if the world cannot trust the United States to uphold an international agreement that was negotiated by a republican administration and passed under a democratic administration, with both bipartisan and bicameral support, the credibility of the United States in highly sensitive trade matters would be suspect from now until long into the future.鈥�

Laura Dawson

鈥淚t lands on the mayors eventually, whether it鈥檚 trade, health, immigration. These are the folks for whom the rubber hits the road. And they are often neglected in our larger conversations about what we should be doing in our federal and international politics. So this is a great perspective.鈥�

Mayor Drew Dilkens

鈥淐anada has won under NAFTA, Mexico has won under NAFTA, the United States has won under NAFTA.鈥�

鈥�11,000 trucks cross the Ambassador Bridge every single day鈥e believe a delay at the border is a non-tariff barrier.鈥�

鈥淭here are parts that go into final assembly in Canada but that cross the border [US/Canada] 6-8 times before that stage.鈥�

鈥淧resident Trump is right about one thing, NAFTA needs to be updated.鈥�

Mayor Kevin Faulconer

鈥淣AFTA is a story of success, of growth, of jobs. Free trade works. It works for our country, it works for our city.鈥�

鈥淥ftentimes a product will cross the border 2 or 3 times before it鈥檚 finished. What a great example of NAFTA.鈥�

鈥淭here is now a 2.5 billion dollar supply chain, this didn鈥檛 exist back in 1994鈥� We have to continue to be innovative.鈥�

鈥淭his is not a partisan issue, this is the right thing to do for our economy. Federal infrastructure under NAFTA is vital to the economy of the entire region.鈥�

Mayor Juan Manuel Gast茅lum

鈥淭he San Diego-Tijuana region has a workforce of over 2 million. Yes, we have borders but we work together. Both cities [Tijuana and San Diego] are richer because of the relationship. 鈥�

鈥淣AFTA is growth, it is competitiveness, it is wellness.鈥�

鈥淲e have to work as a team, we breath the same air. Families go back and forth across the border every day.鈥�

鈥淔or every two jobs created in Tijuana, one job is created in San Diego.鈥�

Mayor Don Iveson

鈥淲e are in this together. All 3 North American countries constantly work together on trade.鈥�

鈥淓dmonton does USD$1 billion in trade with Houston alone, in oil and gas, intellectual property, advanced manufacturing.鈥�

鈥淭he consumer has an interest in the integrated trading system. We鈥檝e material stake in this. The whole continent has a stake as consumers in an integrative energy system.鈥�

鈥淐omputer science, artificial intelligence, traditional resource sectors, having access and labor mobility, through all of these we will benefit from NAFTA.鈥�

鈥淣AFTA is a mutual prosperity pact.鈥�

Paola Avila

鈥淚t would be devastating to lose NAFTA because it would put American businesses at a disadvantage.鈥�

鈥淲e have tremendous border delays at the San Diego/Tijuana border. How do you improve this? With a modernized NAFTA, which would also have an economic benefit for both countries.鈥�

鈥淚t鈥檚 more than NAFTA supply chains that are integrated, it鈥檚 our economies. When one catches a cold, the others get a fever.鈥�

鈥淎n American product is not an American product, but a North American product.鈥�

Karan Bhatia

鈥淭he potential tariff increases themselves from a NAFTA withdrawal aren鈥檛 the primary issue. The resulting uncertainty is the real problem.鈥�

鈥淲e [GE] support an updated and strengthened NAFTA.鈥�

鈥淎 rise in prices [If NAFTA went away] will be passed down to consumers and suppliers.鈥�

鈥淣AFTA does need to be revised. Industries have evolved, trade policy has evolved, technology as well.鈥�

鈥淲e have the opportunity to set an example for the rest of the world [regarding data protectionism].

Amb. Earl Anthony Wayne

鈥淚t is normal to spread out production across neighboring countries.鈥�

鈥淲e need to use 21st century technology available to us and improve workforce development to better our border infrastructures and achieve mutual prosperity.鈥�

鈥淲e鈥檝e seen steady progress over the last 15 years in US-Mexico relations, even accelerated in the security and foreign policy areas, that would be a lot harder to maintain if there was a NAFTA withdrawal.鈥�

鈥淵ou need in-depth defense and security cooperation. That requires trust from the three nations.鈥�

Amb. Arturo Sarukhan

鈥淏eyond the economic numbers is the more compelling story of how NAFTA changed the geopolitical landscape of all North America for the better.鈥�

鈥淲ith a presidential election coming up and plummeting perceptions of the United StateS in Mexico, the wiggle room a Mexican administration may have to accept deals that make or break NAFTA in 4鈥�8 months may be zero.鈥�

鈥淚ncreased US-Mexico military-to-military cooperation could evaporate due to a NAFTA withdrawal.鈥�

鈥淚f NAFTA collapses, all bets are off. It will have a profound, long-standing effect. If NAFTA collapses, future generations will ask 鈥榃ho lost Mexico?鈥欌��

鈥淚f NAFTA goes under, programs & protocols won鈥檛 survive, it would jeopardize day-to-day operations.

鈥淚n the course of 20+ years, the US-Mexico bilateral relationship was transformed because of NAFTA.鈥�

Amb. Michael Kergin

鈥淭he real concern is if NAFTA goes badly and there's no interest in negotiating, would there be enough political backlash that would incline Canada to also step back from security cooperation?鈥�

鈥淲e鈥檝e come to the realization that NAFTA does have an uncertain future and we need to diversify [on Canada signing on to TPP].鈥�

鈥淣AFTA allowed us to build further and include Mexico, to create an integrated supply chain.鈥�

鈥淚f we lose NAFTA, I鈥檓 worried we are going to have to start from scratch to bring our borders and trade back to where they are now.鈥�

AGENDA:

1:30pm Introduction

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Christopher Wilson, Deputy Director, Mexico Institute, 乐鱼 体育

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, Americas Society/Council of the Americas

1:40pm Impact on North American Cities

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Kevin Faulconer, Mayor of San Diego

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Juan Manuel Gast茅lum, Mayor of Tijuana

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Don Iveson, Mayor of Edmonton

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Drew Dilkens, Mayor of Windsor

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Moderator: Laura Dawson, Director, Canada Institute, 乐鱼 体育

2:25pm Impact on Business

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Karan Bhatia, Vice President for Government Affairs & Policy, International Law & Policy, General Electric

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Paola Avila, Chair, Border Trade Alliance, Vice President, San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Moderator: Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, Americas Society/Council of the Americas

3:10pm Impact on Regional Relations and Global Issues

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; James Blanchard, Former U.S. Ambassador to Canada; Partner, DLA Piper

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Michael Kergin, Former Canadian Ambassador to the U.S.; Senior Advisor, Bennett Jones LLP

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Arturo Sarukhan, Former Mexican Ambassador to the U.S.

路&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Moderator/Participant: Earl Anthony Wayne, Former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico; Public Policy Fellow, Mexico Institute, 乐鱼 体育

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