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Hello, I'm John Milewski, and this is 乐鱼 体育 NOW, a production of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. My guest today is Merissa Khurma. Merissa is director of the 乐鱼 体育's Middle East Program, and she joins us to provide an update on the latest from Gaza.

Merissa, welcome. Thanks for joining us. Thank you for having me, Jon. So, Marissa, the the blame game is underway as far as why. What led to the end of the truce or the cease fire? Give us the best version of that that you have been able to discern based on the fact that no foreign reporters are allowed into Gaza and it's hard to get verifiable facts from the ground.

Well, first of all, I think it's important to note that it has been an absolute horrifying week for Palestinians living in Gaza. The Israeli bombardment has killed over 600 people, according to Save the Children, 270 children were killed in one of the deadliest weeks of the conflict since the beginning of the war on October 7th. And so this is a truly tragic situation.

And it comes weeks after the cease fire had brought a lot of respite and some quietude to over 2 million Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip. This is also very tragic for particularly the Israeli families and friends of and loved ones of the Israeli hostages and other hostages that remain in and in custody. You know, in in Gaza that were, you know, taken hostage by Hamas and other Palestinian groups back on October 7th.

Of course, we know now that over 20 of them are actually killed. And so the negotiation and have also focused on returning the bodies. And we've seen protests in Israel by thousands of people who are very much driven by the families of the hostages, also protesting the return to war. So I think this is it's critical to first talk about where both societies are now.

How did this happen? Yes, the blame game has always been part of the name of the game, essentially when it comes to Palestinian the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but particularly with regards to these negotiations. So so it seems that the Israelis were very much pushing towards an extension of phase one. There was a lot of pressure put on Hamas to release all the hostages.

This was also very much driven by direct U.S.. Hamas talks that took place in Doha and with a warning from President Trump himself. We've heard the same warning from Middle East peace envoy. I would call that if Hamas does not release the hostages, then they then they will see the worst coming yet. I think there were various statements used, including how we'll break loose, etc..

And Hamas has not agreed to the deal. They want wanted to go back to the three phased agreement that they agreed to back in January, which again, Middle East envoy would have played a critical role in with the transition team at the time. So here we are today. I think the reality on the ground is quite devastating for innocent civilians.

Of course, from the military perspective, the IDF announced that they have killed various Hamas commanders over the course of the past week, but the vast majority of those killed have been civilians. But there are changes and developments that are critical to this to this scene as well in Israel. So, first of all, we see Prime Minister Netanyahu coming at this from a position of strength.

There have been lots of pressures on him politically. And so many analysts in Israel have been essentially saying that Netanyahu went back to war because that's one way to save himself politically and to maintain power. And now the far right government is as strong as ever. They managed very successfully today to pass the 2025 budget, even though there were protests right outside of the Knesset, primarily led by the families of the hostages.

But versus do we know are there technical differences between extending the phase one ceasefire versus moving to negotiations on phase two, which is Hamas's preference preference? Are there technical advantages for Hamas by moving to phase two? So of course, Hamas's objective is, is to survive in order to regroup. Right. I mean, they they their victory is survival. They want to stay in Gaza.

But we've heard very loud and clear from both the Israeli government and the U.S. government that there is no place for Hamas in a post-conflict scenario. And the Israeli government repeatedly a, states that we need to annihilate Hamas completely. We will not allow any Hamas presence. Now, why is diplomacy still crucial to all of this? First of all, the the Arab states came together and approved an Egyptian plan for postwar postwar Gaza that really delve deeper into the details of postwar reconstruction, development and humanitarian assistance, as well as governance and security.

It does not mention Hamas. So it's a Hamas free plan. But now we're also hearing another Jordanian proposal that is sort of an amendment to this plan, where the proposal is to get all of the Hamas military and civilian leaders outside of Gaza to ensure that any postwar scenario does not include any Hamas members. And so we know from hearing with costs this week that both Hamas and the Israelis are still negotiating.

And and that's that's where the technicality of extending phase two versus phase one versus going to phase two and three comes in. Hamas wants to stay and they see perhaps the extension as a way out where they will be driven out. But they are certainly less and less popular with the regions leadership and the governments that have been playing a critical role to end this conflict since the time when Israel responded to the initial attack, which which started all of this horror.

The question has been out there about does Israel have an end game in place or in mind? Do we at any point at this stage of the game, still have any clarity on what that might look like? You've mentioned Hamas removed from consideration as any part of any governance that takes place in the aftermath of the violence. But are we talking about again, we've heard everything from annexation, new saber rattling on that on the part of Israel to the grumblings from the rumblings from the Trump administration that people weren't taking seriously at times, but they keep coming back up.

Do we have any clarity on what an end game could look like? No clarity on what the end game looks like, at least in terms of how the Israelis define it. We've heard the Arab states outline an end game, which is, again, basically laid out very clearly in the Egyptian plan that all key U.S. allies have supported. But so far, there's also beyond murmurs at this point of a reoccupation of Gaza.

So according to various sources in Israel, and this was I guess the plan was sort of either leaked or discussed privately with reporters. The Israeli military has drawn up a plan for annexation and for reoccupation of Gaza. And, of course, you know, the Israeli military has not commented on this so far. They keep emphasizing that they are their initial goal still stands, which is the complete annihilation and destruction of Hamas.

But beyond that, we don't really see any other plan for postwar governance or reconstruction. Now, the far right government and the far right ministers in particular have been very vocal about paving the way for. They call it voluntary, a voluntary displacement of the Palestinians. But we know very well that in any conflict, there's no such thing as voluntary displacement.

It's simply forced displacement. And this has been a debate ongoing in the Israeli media. There's a lot of a lot of opposition to it, particularly in in circles that have been extremely critical of the war. Interestingly enough, according to various sources in the Israeli media, reservists have been also very vocal and very critical of this continuation of war.

There's exhaustion on their part, too. And they've been talking about it very openly, either writing op ads or talking about it openly on social media. So so all of these factors have to be, you know, brought into the fore. But the reality remains that Bibi Netanyahu is still very strong. I think the passing of the budget, even shores up more support for him.

But, of course, this is also happening in the backdrop of a lot of opposition and growing opposition amongst the Israeli public. So let's let's circle back to the humanitarian aspects of all of this. Starting with the hostages. Do we know anything new about how many might still be alive? You know, the numbers are hard to track accurately because there are always surprises.

I think the numbers are hard to track. But it what what we are seeing more consistently is that there are a little bit over 20 that are that remain alive and the rest, of course, are killed or either killed by Hamas or perhaps they were killed in various bombardments. There's you know, there's no way to know at this point.

But, of course, there are bodies are also part of the exchanges that are happening in the negotiation. So that's critical. And so, yeah, I mean, we've we've been hearing from the families of the hostages for over a year now about the need to end the war and to get the hostages back safely. And when you look at some of the public opinion polling with regards to support for negotiations in order to get the hostages out, there's overwhelming support amongst the Israeli public that this is the route that Netanyahu should take, but that's not the path that he has chosen.

And the last week's violence that's absolutely horrific for the Palestinian civilians in Gaza showcases that he intends to continue. And speaking of that, the Gaza Ministry of Health recently released some figures saying more than 50,000 have been killed. That also includes. Well, in addition to that, another 113,000 plus injured and those 50,000 killed would amount to about 2.1% of the entire population.

And that comes out to one in every 46 people who have been critically, fatally affected by this this violence. You know, Israel has said those numbers are not reliable. The U.N. says they are, no matter how you slice and dice it, we're talking about a tragic amount of loss of life here. Absolutely. And I think the other part that we are not talking about enough, but of course, a lot of reports have emerged from organizations that focus particularly on women and children.

There are thousands, hundreds of thousands of of Palestinians who have been injured. You are seeing so many Palestinian amputees. There is a recent report that OHCHR has published recently about how the number of amputated children has not been seen in modern day conflicts in decades. And so those are really alarming facts, alarming developments that have to be tended to.

Of course, there are various governments in the region that have been taken, taking in children that have that have require critical needs or critical medical attention. From Qatar to the United Arab Emirates to Jordan, as well as Egypt. But that's, of course, not enough. A lot more has to happen on the humanitarian side. We also have to ensure that the humanitarian aid is not linked to any kind of cease fire, meaning that there has to be a constant flow of aid of food, water and medical supplies in order to ensure that the civilian population is able to survive.

And so far, I mean, all those people who have been in and out of Gaza from the humanitarian sector or the regional leaders who are well aware of the situation have been calling the the living conditions as uninhabitable. There's no other way to describe it. The one thing we know for sure that we heard from President Trump various times is that he wants to end this war and move forward.

And the key here is to exert pressure on both parties, particularly given the Israeli political dynamics at play that Bibi is very much driving for his own political survival. Is is there any other nation other than the United States who is in a position to either apply external pressure or to serve as a mediator? Or is this is the U.S. the key player in that regard?

The United States remains to be the key player in this regard. Of course, it works very closely with both Qatar and Egypt in order to broker these negotiations with Hamas. But it remains to be the one critical player that the United, the European Union and of course, various European countries will will also be able to play a key role, but they're not as involved.

This has been always driven by the United States and the regional leaders that are key U.S. allies in the Arab world also see this as critical US leadership moving this forward. Does Mr. Wood Cuff and do U.S. negotiators, do they see a path, a clear path to a cease fire, or are we in for now, several more weeks of the kind of devastation we've seen in the last several days?

Well, we've heard from Envoy Wood calls just recently in the last, I think, 24 to 48 hours that negotiations are under way and that perhaps we will be seeing a cease fire soon. But we have to wait and see. And again, the the key to ensuring that we get to ending this conflict, ending this particular war, is through diplomacy.

And it seems that that is the path that the key Arab allies have chosen and have put it forward in their plan. And they have been meeting with with regularly, whether here in the United States or in the region. So we know that the channels are open, but of course, we have to wait and see where these negotiations go.

A final question for now, Merissa, because obviously we've talked about this before and will, again, this is an NBC headline, Israel Ramps Up Risk of All Out War in Gaza as it escalates renewed bombing campaign. And that's another thing we've been talking about since the beginning of these hostilities. How could this thing escalate beyond Gaza, beyond Israel and Hamas?

And is that a real risk right now, some larger escalation, even though you just said that Arab nations remain interested in a diplomatic solution? I mean, that's that's I think, why the Arab leaders have been working tirelessly to get to some sort of end game in Gaza. It's precisely because it's very much connected to the larger geopolitical theater where Iran plays a key role in supporting Hamas and in supporting and maintaining its various proxies.

You know, in Lebanon, Hezbollah, various Shia militia in Iraq, as well as the Houthis in Yemen. Now, of course, there have been significant geopolitical shifts that have taken place over the course of the last year and a half due to the the the extension of this conflict to the various proxies. So we've seen another devastating and bloody war in Lebanon that has also killed many civilians, but also very much dismantled the leadership, the key leadership of Hezbollah.

And so Hezbollah is weakened. The takeover of the Syrian leadership by H2. Yes. And now basically the fall of the Assad regime has also seen the end of Iran in Syria, which is a significant boon for the region. And the regional leaders who see their their involvement in Syria as problematic. And and we've also seen that the United States is very serious in putting military pressure and attacking when necessary, the Houthis in Yemen and so there is something to be said about Iran's role and where how Iran sees the future or its future not only in the region, but but with the United States as well.

We know that there was a letter sent from President Trump to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. We do not know exactly the contents of the letter, but there is some diplomatic traffic as well taking place. So we have to see if Iran chooses a path that would lead to de-escalation across the region. But, of course, the Gaza the Gaza scenario or the or the Palestinian territories in particular, because there's also a lot happening in the West Bank that we didn't discuss has it's a unique feature as well that, yes, is connected to the larger geopolitical developments with regards to Iran, but it also has its own specific specificity, specificity, which of course, many of the the the

leaders in the region understand very well and have been communicating it to this administration. And any ultimate lasting solution is going to have to connect those dots. These things aren't living in isolation. You know, Marissa, as always, I know I repeat myself with this, but it's always appreciate not only that you brief us on the geopolitics and all those those big questions, but also that you remind us that, you know, real human beings, real lives, and often innocent lives are being lost.

In the meantime, as as we sit here safely in our perches in Washington, D.C., it's good to keep that in mind. Thank you very much. Absolutely. Our guest is John. You're welcome. Our guest has been Merissa Khurma, who is director of the 乐鱼 体育's Middle East program. She and her colleagues do lots of good work and provide lots of really valuable information on an ongoing basis.

You can find that at 乐鱼 体育 dot org. I'd like to thank Marissa today and thank all of you for listening and watching, and I hope you enjoyed this edition of 乐鱼 体育 now and will join us again soon. Until then, for all of us at the center, I'm John Milewski. Thanks for your time and interest.