ΐΦΣγ ΜεΣύ

THIS IS AN UNEDITED TRANSCRIPT

Hello, I'm John Milewski, and this is Wilson's Center NOW, a production of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. My guest today is Lila Abed.

Lila is director of the ΐΦΣγ ΜεΣύ's Mexico Institute. And she and her colleagues have put together a new publication titled The Next President of the United States Challenges and Recommendations for the U.S. Mexico Relationship. Lila, welcome. Thank you for joining us. Thank you so much for having me, John. So tell us about this project. I know it's almost a sister project to the previously published version, which gives advice to the new Mexican president.

That's right, John. I mean, we're at a critical juncture in U.S. Mexico relations. And so the ΐΦΣγ ΜεΣύ is Mexico Institute prepared this booklet to delve deeper into some of the fundamental issues on the US Mexico bilateral agenda and propose recommendations to the next U.S. president, which will be taking office very soon on ways to better engage with Mexico.

The booklet includes sections on security, USMCA implementation and the upcoming review in 2026, as well as migration, energy, cross-border water management and democracy in Mexico. We brought together about ten authors, experts on all of these issues to write really succinct chapters. They are meant to be in short form to allow the audience to be able to read through this booklet in a very short time frame.

And all chapters conclude with a section of concrete recommendations. And so there are very clear sort of suggestions that are provided to the next U.S. president and to the next U.S. administration on how it can better collaborate and cooperate with Mexico, especially at a time where we have new government that's on both sides of the border. And so it really is a critical moment to analyze past efforts and to propose new policy options for both governments to better to better relations and to strengthen the US-Mexico relationship.

We are, like I said, at a critical juncture for the US and Mexico. And so it is, in my opinion, it came at a very timely moment to sort of understand what the priorities are for the next U.S. administration with its other neighbor. And as you mentioned, Lila, the format is is terrific. I mean, in a era where we're inundated with information and everyone is has more than they can handle, the focus, the conciseness, everything about it makes it really useful.

In your introduction in the piece, you use words describing the relationship like deep geographical, historical, cultural. But I want to step back from the policy for a minute and have you comment on that, because we tend to talk about the US-Mexico relationship in terms of policy. A Washington think tank of Of course, that makes sense for us right?

But on the other hand, there are people who are not very engaged in politics or even economics beyond their jobs, who have very intimate relationships across the border. And sometimes those who live on the border are moving back and forth across the border. Can you talk a bit about that, about the nature of this relationship beyond the technical aspects or the public policy aspects?

No, that's right. I think that's a very good point to make, John. The US-Mexico relationship really affects millions of lives of citizens living on both sides of the border. It is especially true for those that live in the border region, right where we have more than a million crossings per day. It really is sort of a third country, right, where there's so much constant activity and engagement and cross-border trade happening on a daily basis.

And even though it seems a little bit technical, in reality, Mexico is the US's top trading partner and therefore the US depends on Mexico for some of its most basic goods, right from avocados to tequila to mescal to beer to more agricultural products that the economies are so integrated and to a certain extent the cultures as well. And so it is one of the most important, if not one of the most consequential partnerships in the world.

And so the way that the leaders of both countries engage with one another, the policies that are proposed among both countries really have a direct impact for U.S. citizens and Mexican citizens alike. And so this booklet really sort of delves into some of the more technical issues. Yes. But I believe that the language is is simple. It is very easy to understand and it sort of lays out the groundwork for what the new US president is going to be able to accomplish with Mexico's first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, especially on issues that are not necessarily the most newsworthy, right?

Like cross-border water, cross-border water management. Like energy. Like Mexico's democratic system. These are issues that nonetheless are extremely important for the future of U.S. Mexico relations. And I think the, you know, the new administration in the US will have a lot to do. And we've already heard a lot from President elect Donald Trump on his government's plans for Mexico.

And so hopefully there are areas where they will be able to find alignment, where they will have shared objectives and hopefully understand that all the challenges that they will face can only be confronted when they act jointly and when they act together. And so that's sort of where this booklet is heads. But it also, you know, understands and points out, rightfully so, that Mexico is undergoing several challenges as the US is the United States.

But Mexico does present certain issues that might affect the priorities and the national security of the United States. And so these are all issues that, you know, we delve into in this booklet and hopefully the viewers and the audience will find it interesting to read because the debate on the border has been so politicized in the United States and the focus has been on all the negative aspects.

I want to highlight what you said at the beginning of your response just now about these 1 million border crossings a day. Those are registered border crossings, right? These are legal activity back and forth between the two countries. And that also, I think the number is 1 million in bilateral trade every minute, every minute, every day. And Mexico became the U.S., its largest trading partner a couple of years ago, surpassing Canada and China.

The other thing about the timing that you mentioned, we're in this cycle, right, where every 12 years there's a match between the U.S. presidential election and the Mexican president on a presidential election. What does that tell you in terms of opportunities? And do we know anything about the the Trump Sheinbaum relationship, if it exists at all? That's right.

Every 12 years, presidential elections coincide. And both Mexico and the United States. And that was true in 2024. And so, like I mentioned, this is a very important moment for the new leaders to sort of try to reset the tone of the bilateral relationship to better understand how they're going to engage to address mutually, you know, mutual challenges that lie in the near future.

But I think that Claudia Sheinbaum, president, Claudia Shane and the Mexican government understand and value what the United States means for Mexico, whether it's in terms of trade, whether it's on security, and definitely on migration cooperation, on behalf of the of the president of President Trump and his upcoming administration. There are clear priorities that have been outlined. Right.

Including on migration, mass deportations as well as having the Mexican government cooperate more deeply on stemming the flow of migrants towards the US southern border On security. We have heard from President Trump that there is a real focus that will be had on stemming the flow of synthetic opioids coming from Mexico with precursor chemicals arriving to Mexico from China, but ultimately land in the hands of many US citizens that have caused the public health crisis here.

And then on trade, I mean, like we mentioned, you know, Mexico is the US's top trading partner. It positioned itself as so in 2023 with two way trade totaling just shy of $800 billion. We have a USMCA that has really laid out the regulatory and legal framework that has allowed investment to increase 136% or the flow of traded for the trade in goods of goods and services to increase by 50%.

Since the USMCA came into force on July 1st, 2020. And so we really do have a very successful trading block with this focus on regional supply chains and on this phenomenon known as near shoring. Now, that doesn't mean, John, that there aren't important challenges ahead on on the trade front, especially with the USMCA upcoming review in 2026, where, you know, there are a lot of questions about where it will lead, whether all three nations will extend 16 more years or whether they will decide to go into annual reviews.

And so there is a lot of uncertainty that will be probably deepening in the year ahead and it definitely in 2026. But you know, what it holds true is that on all these issues, security, migration and trade, the U.S. and Mexico are so intertwined, they're so interconnected and they're so interdependent that depending on the policies that both countries and to a certain extent as well Canada decide to take on, will have deep, deep impacts on the U.S. economy, on Mexico's economy and, of course, North America more broadly.

So we're not going to do books on tape here and read the whole thing for everyone. But I do want to ask you to to maybe pull out a few specific suggestions in each of the areas. And let's begin with security. One of the points made in the book is about how AMLO's policies are different from Claudia Sheinbaum policies and what kind of opportunity does that create and what kind of a specific recommendation, if you could give us a sample are you making in the booklet?

The security chapter is perhaps one of the most important ones. Just because of the, you know, the salience of US-Mexico security cooperation. We're at a moment where US Mexico security efforts have deeply deteriorated, and so the only path forward, hopefully, is to strengthen cooperation and to reestablish mutual trust between among security agencies operating on both sides of the border.

I think one of the most important sort of recommendations from the security chapter is that the United States needs to have more presence, whether that's with agents on the ground in Mexico, and that the United States has this opportunity to really help President Claudia Sheinbaum strengthen her investigation and intelligence capabilities in Mexico, not only to stem the flow of synthetic opioids towards the United States, but also to combat criminal criminal organizations that are operating in Mexico.

This is something that is completely new, that is very much different than her predecessor, which was former President AndrΓ©s Manuel Lopez Obrador. And I believe and I think the author also points to this, is that there is a real opportunity to strengthen US-Mexico security cooperation efforts. And I think that Mexico's new security plan does sort of have the the the points and the aspects that are needed to form closer ties with U.S. security agencies.

So hopefully this will be something that we will see in the years to come. You know, and I think I just noticed that you were able to say AMLO's full name more quickly than I could say, the abbreviated nickname. And that was amazing. Or I have to I say it all the time, right? So on on the USMCA, any recommendation there in terms of whether this is an agreement that should be extended for that maximum amount of time or or whether annual reviews would make more sense.

I think that the overarching conclusion from most authors, experts, analysts and trade officials working on USMCA and the upcoming review agree that an extension of 16 more years would provide the North American region with the certainty that it needs to continue attracting investment, to continue creating jobs, and to continue the flow of trades and services, especially at a time and you mentioned this, John, when competition with China is at an all time high, the United States has made very clear that it is extremely concerned with China's growing presence, influence and investment in Mexico.

We have heard recently from Claudio Chamberlain's government that they are doing everything to try to reduce the imports that they receive from Asia, particularly from China. Claudia She just presented her plan, Mexico, which, you know, alludes to the fact that Mexico is understand Mexico understands Washington's national security concerns regarding China. And so I think the authors for the USMCA chapter do a fantastic job, sort of outlining some of the big issues, the most controversial aspects that we can expect ahead of the USMCA review.

But I think the fundamental sort of underlying issue here is China. And we do see more alignment in terms of Canada and the United States. And so the way that Mexico sort of response in the coming days and in the coming months will definitely mark the way or pave the way of how the review will unfold in 2026.

On the topic of migration, perhaps the stickiest wicket of all of these that we've been talking about, what are the recommendations in that regard? And again, I don't you don't need to cover the entire people can read the book and we'll tell them how to get it. Before we end our discussion today. Yeah, I mean, I think it's it's it's obvious, right, that the United States should protect its border and that it should bolster bolster border security and that it also needs to address sort of the shortcomings of its asylum system.

And so these are issues that are not new that we've been caring for many years back. But definitely the United States and especially, you know, taking into consideration the more aggressive measures that we're probably going to be seeing coming from the White House after January 20th, this is there's a real intent to carry out mass deportations. Currently, there's about 11.7 undocumented migrants residing in the United States, and about half anywhere between 45% and 50% are Mexican nationals.

And so the way that the United States is able to coordinate a plan with Mexico will be of utmost importance, because if not, what will happen is that chaos at the border will be increased. Right? If there's not an orderly, humane way of deporting many of these migrants that did cross the border illegally to the United States, I think that Mexico will be faced with a very difficult situation on all fronts migration, trade, security, and it will face very deep institutional challenges.

And so the hope is, is that the United States, of course, can protect its border, it can address its asylum system and also carry out deportations. But hopefully in a way that allows Mexico to absorb these migrants in a way that won't debilitated government, its institutions, and hopefully will not deteriorate its economy. Because, again, the way that these countries are intertwined, anything that happens in Mexico has a direct effect in the United States.

So the migration chapter is really interesting. It also does cover sort of the the main historical trends that we've seen on migration in past decades and how we have ended up where we are now. So definitely something to to read, especially because migration is going to be at the forefront of the US-Mexico bilateral relationship and we move on to energy.

You know, in the you make the observation yourself in your introduction about the fact that the pandemic has caused nations to look regionally versus globally, and they're sharing and things like this have become very trendy. How does this affect the energy relationship between the United States and Mexico? What are the recommendations in that regard? So actually, you know, naturally, a lot of these chapters sort of, you know, are inter interlinked, right?

So some of these connected to the shinbone. Right, Exactly. So interestingly enough, there's sort of a really good flow from chapter to chapter. And so energy actually does fall under the USMCA review chapter as well, because one of the pending disputes that Mexico currently is confronting is a dispute that was presented by the United States and Canada for Mexico's energy policies that allegedly violate the USMCA.

And so energy in Mexico is extremely important, but it's oil state owned enterprise. Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission have now been officially placed a state owned enterprises. This was a constitutional reform that was approved under a cloud of shame Bonds administration, and it has definitely spurred a lot of concern from private sector representatives, but also from the US government and to a certain extent from Canada as well.

And so the way that Mexico is able to really attract investment in its energy sector will ultimately depend on how it is able to carry out its energy policies. Do this up to this moment. What we've seen is, is cloud pushing mom is pushing a transition to green and renewable energy, which has been very welcome from various, you know, individuals and the private sector especially so because she's a scientist, she's an environmental engineer, and she does care very much about climate change.

But one cannot sort of avoid the fact that Mexico is undergoing severe challenges with its energy sector and, you know, strengthening the state's participation and control over its energy sector. I believe the authors don't agree that this will help propel Mexico's energy sustainability, its independence and its production in in the next few years. And perhaps the most surprising area of focus is water.

It shouldn't be, but it's not something we think of automatically. And now, in times of extreme weather events and droughts, it will be on the radar more and more as we move forward. That's right. And I think cross-border water management is one of those issues that we don't necessarily hear about very often, but we will be sort of understanding its importance more and more in the years to come.

There is a treaty that the United States and Mexico have. There are a lot of challenges that remain in terms of understanding some of the demands and some of the responsibilities on behalf of Mexico and the US alike. And so the way that Mexico and the United States are able to address cross-border water management is going to be one of the top priorities, I believe, if not in this administration, most definitely, and in many that are yet to come.

This is a this is a sort of a a pressure cooker sort of item that cannot be ignored. And so the fact that we decided to integrate a water chapter is, you know, demonstrates the the importance of this issue. Currently, but also in in the years to come. I believe that this is one of those issues that could cause some of the more complicated challenges and tensions between both nations.

And finally, there's a focus on democracy. And maybe I can begin by asking you for an update on I know that near the end of AMLO's administration, there were moves being made that international observers said would weaken democracy in Mexico. So maybe you could give us an update about the status of the health of democracy in Mexico right now.

Most of the international reports that work on democracy right have signaled a deep decline in Mexico's Democratic system in the last several years. And so the author of the Democracy chapter does a great job of sort of outlining some of the issues that have brought Mexico decline in terms of its democratic system, you know, anywhere from the recent judicial reform that represents a complete overhaul of Mexico's judicial branch.

All just to give you a very quick sort of understanding of how big and important this judicial reform is, all all judges from the Supreme Court to, you know, lower court judges will be elected by popular vote. You know, this is a very controversial topic. But, you know, the fact that this could allow the governing parties to sort of pack the courts is something that international reports and agencies have marked as an indicator for declining Mexico's democracy.

There also has been constitutional reforms to eliminate independent autonomous agencies. There have been, you know, especially under the Lopez Obrador administration, there was clear attacks against journalists, against activists, against non-governmental organizations, against feminist groups. And of course, a civil society is sort of the fourth pillar, if not one of the most important pillars of a democracy. And so, you know, understanding sort of the democratic challenges that Mexico is facing and also understanding some of the democratic challenges that the United States is facing as well is very interesting in terms of understanding how these policies are developed, but especially so how they're going to be, you know, how they land once put into practice, especially in

terms of, you know, bolstering Mexico's institutional capacity, in terms of upholding the human rights of citizens, of keeping a separation of branch, the separation of powers, but also making sure that, you know, elections are free and fair and that citizens are allowed to voice their concerns and protest freely. These are some of the indicators that the reports have been tracking very closely in recent years.

And it's very interesting, John, because despite what reports demonstrate about Mexico's democratic decline, the approval rate for Mexico's democracy amongst Mexican citizens, according to several recent polls, is that they very much approve of the democratic system and they very much approve not only of former President Lopez Obrador, but Claudia Shaman just came up to her 100 days in government and she has more than 70% of an approval rate.

And so these two sides really do need to be discussed more because there is there is a truth to potential democratic decline in Mexico. But there's also something to be said about the fact that Mexican citizens are very content and satisfied with their political system. Yeah, a 70% approval rating is something just about any leader on planet Earth would take.

Unknown. In a moment notice. And I just to make clear to our viewers and listeners, you know, we don't have our head in the sand. The struggles of democratic ideals around the world are a thing that's happening. Mexico is not unique in that regard. A final thought before we talk about where people can read the entire publication is now.

You mentioned that we need to take a look at the ties between the legislative branches. We've been focusing at the executive level in this discussion, and the books give recommendations to the administrations. But what's the history of and what's the possibility of strengthening communication between the legislative branches of government in these two countries? It is so important. I'm so glad you raised this question, John, because naturally, when we talk or discuss or think about the US-Mexico relationship, we automatically think of the White House and the equivalent in Mexico, which is the national Palace.

But a really important part of the US-Mexico relationship happens at different levels, right, than the federal one. For example, with Congress, we unfortunately they've stopped in recent years, but we have the interparliamentary meetings between the US and Mexico, which really brought closer together legislators to talk about the priorities of both countries, to talk about the challenges, to talk about the tensions, and to also shape and form personal relationships amongst legislators on both sides of the border.

It is extremely important and hopefully they're able to reinstate this interparliamentary meetings in the next four years. But let me let me say one more thing, and before I do, you know, the Mexico Institute is working very hard to bring legislation, chairs on both sides of the border together. The Mexico Institute is hosting its innovation forum, which is bringing to Washington to about two dozen legislators from Mexico to understand sort of the innovation trends here in the United States.

But we're hopefully going to bring them close with us, members of Congress as well. But we're also hoping to bring our congressional delegation to Mexico in the spring time. So, you know, we're trying to do our part. Of course, the ΐΦΣγ ΜεΣύ is congressionally chartered, and so we do everything we can to strengthen our congressional relations between both countries.

But there's also something to be said at the state level and even at the municipal level, Right. Especially, again, with the border region, state to state engagement between the U.S. and Mexico is extremely important. And not only that, for states like Texas, California, Illinois and others, Mexico is their top trade destination, but it represents a huge portion of their economy and of the of their trade activity.

And so a lot of the US-Mexico Mexico relationship really is focused on, yes, the federal federal government relationship, but also Congress, also state to state, with governors interacting actively and on a daily manner with their respective teams, of course, but also at the municipal level. Right. And so that tells you how how, how intertwined, how important this relationship is.

And that connection between both countries is very it holds true at every level of government. And so I think that despite the challenges that both nations have, there's no way that, you know, the U.S. and Mexico can sort of just push each other away. We're bound, like I said in my introduction, by geographical cultural ties and historical ties.

And so those will remain and hopefully the new leaders of both the US and Mexico can find ways to better cooperate with one another for the benefit, prosperity and security of both nations and of North America. Well, Leila, you and your colleagues continue to do amazing work and a great contribution to the relationship and to the larger goals of both countries.

You know, I always feel smarter when I attend your events or read your I don't know if I'm smarter, but I'm better informed. Right. I should and I should let others judge about whether I'm smart, too generous, thanks, but certainly better informed. And thank you for that. So for people who'd like to read what we've just been talking about, where can they find the publication?

Yeah, you can find the booklet on the Mexico Institute site. You can go to the ΐΦΣγ ΜεΣύ Web page, click on Programs, Mexico Institute on our publication section, as well as on our landing page. You will find an electronic version of the booklet both in English and in Spanish. We do have a translated version for those that reside in an a Spanish speaking country.

You can easily access that document. We do have printed copies at the ΐΦΣγ ΜεΣύ, so if you're ever visiting us, please come visit the Mexico Institute and we'd be happy to hand a hard copy to you. So hopefully this booklet is widely read and also we encourage folks to share it with their networks if they if they choose to do so.

And the keyword there is free, free of charge. ΐΦΣγ ΜεΣύ provides all of this good stuff for you at no charge. That's right. And you plan on updating the digital version? That's right. Yeah, that's right. So because it is a very dynamic relationship and things are consistently changing, especially as it concerns Mexico's constitutional reforms and as we understand what the next U.S. administration's plans actually are going to look like in practice, the authors are welcome to modify their chapters on the electronic version of the booklet.

So if you do see some changes that might be minor, some may be perhaps more substantial, but those are that that is an opportunity that the authors have. And so hopefully it'll it'll be a living document of sorts. We will thank you for a terrific briefing today. Thank you, John. Our guest has been Lila Abed, the director of the ΐΦΣγ ΜεΣύ's Mexico Institute.

We hope you enjoyed this edition of ΐΦΣγ ΜεΣύ now and that you'll join us again soon. Until then, for all of us at the center, I'm Jon Milewski. Thanks for your time and interest.