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The China Conundrum Challenging the Canadian Federal Election

Whichever leader becomes Canada鈥檚 prime minister after September 20 will have to navigate Canada鈥檚 relations with China in an increasingly competitive world between Beijing and Washington. The national leaders debate last week illustrated either a Liberal or Conservative-led government will continue to struggle with the China conundrum until tensions between Beijing and Washington ease.

Canada/China Flag Divide

At the first and only English debate in the 2021 Canadian federal election last week, the five-party leaders went head-to-head briefly on Canada鈥檚 relationship with China - a foreign policy issue that has been largely absent from the campaign trail.  

The Canada-China relationship is now defined and constrained by the plight of the 鈥淭wo Michaels,鈥 Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, having been arbitrarily detained in retaliation for Canada鈥檚 cooperation at the request of the United States (U.S.) in arresting Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou for extradition. Imprisoned for more than 1000 days, the Two Michaels were at the forefront of the debate on China. The other party leaders challenged Mr. Trudeau for having not done enough to secure their release. Mr. O鈥橳oole accused Mr. Trudeau of 鈥渉aving not fought for the Two Michaels and put pressure on the Communist regime.鈥 Mr. Trudeau responded to Mr. O鈥橳oole by saying, 鈥淚f you want to get the Michaels home, you do not simply lob tomatoes across the Pacific.鈥

Conservative Leader Erin O鈥橳oole pressed the attack on Mr. Trudeau, accusing him of 鈥榖eing absent鈥 on issues that have challenged Canada-China relations, such as Huawei, Hong Kong, the Uighurs minority in Xinjiang, and the Two Michaels. Bloc Qu茅b茅cois party leader Yves-Fran莽ois Blanchet was even more direct in saying, 鈥渢hrowing tomatoes might not be a solution 鈥 but, doing nothing might not be a solution either.鈥

Mr. Trudeau rejects the notion that his government has been doing nothing. He cited work with allies and partners, including the United States, to add pressure on China. Moreover, he emphasized that 鈥楥anada鈥檚 voice has been very strong鈥 in working with the international community in several multilateral fora to challenge China on human rights issues, but also compete against China economically. His response aligned with his government鈥檚 framing of Canada鈥檚 complex relationship with China over the last few years - Canada will co-exist, cooperate, compete, and challenge China.

With the margins between the Liberals and the Conservatives narrowing ahead of the election on September 20, the likelihood of a Conservative government led by Erin O鈥橳oole has become possible within the last leg of the campaign. An O鈥橳oole government would reconfigure Canada鈥檚 relations with China, taking a tough stance on virtually all matters, such as diplomacy, human rights, trade, and investments. The fundamental difference between both parties is their stance on a China-led by the Communist Party of China, and how Canada should engage with its government.

In the , China was only explicitly mentioned once alongside Russia and Iran, which stated that a Liberal government would commit to combatting authoritarianism and foreign interference. In contrast, the mentioned China approximately thirty times with thirteen concrete points dedicated to 鈥楽tanding Up to China鈥檚 Aggression.鈥  

If elected, some of the points the Conservatives would adopt, include banning Huawei from Canadian 5G infrastructure, utilizing the Magnitsky sanctions law to sanction Chinese human rights offenders, working with our allies to build a 鈥渃oalition of democracies,鈥 withdraw Canada鈥檚 membership in the Asian Infrastructure Bank, shift trading relations from China to other Indo-Pacific and African countries. As China鈥檚 leadership, the Conservatives state their 鈥渋ssue is with China鈥檚 communist government and leadership鈥 and that China鈥檚 leadership represent a threat to Canada鈥檚 interests and values. The direction of a Conservative-led government would be highly adversarial and hawkish on China with the overall aim of reducing Canada鈥檚 overall reliance and relations with China.  

The platform prompted a rebuke from China鈥檚 Ambassador to Canada Cong Peiwu and state-run The Global Times characterized the platform as being 鈥榟ostile,鈥 which would cater to fostering an 鈥榯oxic anti-China atmosphere鈥 in Canada. The warning from the state-media outlet: 鈥淚f the Canadian government puts those hawkish words into action, it will invite counterstrikes from China, and Ottawa is the one to suffer.鈥 In an interview with the Hill Times, referred to the Conservatives by saying, 鈥淪ome people put their personal political interests above the interests of the Canadian people as a whole and hype issues related to China.鈥

The four-on-one debate and campaign rhetoric from the party leaders depicted a troublesome image on the future of Canada-China relations. Despite Mr. Trudeau鈥檚 attempt to defend his government鈥檚 approach to China since the downward spiral of Canada-China relations in 2018, it remains unclear how the other party leaders would vastly differentiate their response to an increasingly aggressive and assertive 鈥榞lobal China.鈥

Unlike the U.S., which can place detrimental sanctions, tariffs, and restrictions on China, Canada does not possess the same arsenal 鈥 a reality the other political leaders failed to emphasize to the Canadian public, opting to vaguely state that Canada must work with its allies and partners in standing up for our values and interests. In comparison to Mr. Trudeau, a seasoned veteran in experiencing the frosty relationship between Ottawa and Beijing, the other party leaders, including Mr. O鈥橳oole, are na茂ve if they believe Canada can effectively confront China given the 鈥楥anadian arsenal.鈥

The Canadian public is not responding to mere hype when expressing concern over Canada鈥檚 relations with the United States and China, and the potential for Canadian interests to become hostage to U.S.-China tensions. Whichever leader is Canada鈥檚 prime minister after the September 20 election, the risks for Canada will persist until tensions between Beijing and Washington ease.

Author

Canada Institute

The mission of the 乐鱼 体育's Canada Institute is to raise the level of knowledge of Canada in the United States, particularly within the Washington, DC policy community. Research projects, initiatives, podcasts, and publications cover contemporary Canada, US-Canadian relations, North American political economy, and Canada's global role as it intersects with US national interests.   Read more

Canada Institute

Kissinger Institute on China and the United States

The Kissinger Institute works to ensure that China policy serves American long-term interests and is founded in understanding of historical and cultural factors in bilateral relations and in accurate assessment of the aspirations of China鈥檚 government and people.   Read more

Kissinger Institute on China and the United States