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The Future of France's Far-Right Party

Le Pen

Marine Le Pen, the French far-right leader, was convicted of embezzlement by a criminal court in Paris on March 31, which banned her from running for president in 2027 and deepened a political crisis that threatens to topple the Fifth Republic created nearly seven decades ago by Charles de Gaulle.

Judges sentenced Le Pen to four years in prison and barred her from seeking public office for the next five years. Half of her jail term was suspended and judges said she could serve the remaining two years by wearing an electronic bracelet to avoid jail time.  She was also fined 100,000 euros ($108,000).

Le Pen and her National Rally party were accused of illegally taking nearly $5 million in European Parliament funds over a decade to pay party workers to perform tasks unrelated to EU business.  The court ruled Le Pen had played a 鈥渃entral role鈥 in siphoning funds to her party when it was in desperate financial straits. 

The presiding judge said the gravity of the case required a stiff sentence despite the potential political consequences because nobody is entitled to 鈥渋mmunity in violation of the rule of law.鈥 Le Pen left the courtroom before judges had finished reading her sentence, looking angry and murmuring 鈥渋ncredible鈥 as she departed.

The verdict threatens further turmoil in a country where President Emmanuel Macron鈥檚 fragile centrist government could be brought down at any time by legislators in the National Assembly, where Le Pen鈥檚 party holds the largest bloc of votes.  Jordan Bardella, Le Pen鈥檚 29 year-old prot茅g茅 and likely presidential candidate in her absence, declared 鈥渘ot only has Marine Le Pen been unjustly convicted, it鈥檚 French democracy that鈥檚 being executed.鈥

The ruling leaves the 2027 presidential race in France wide open. Opinion polls showed Le Pen well ahead with as much as 37 percent of the vote, ten points ahead of her nearest rival. Macron is term-limited and cannot run again.  The leading candidate from his centrist coalition is former prime minister Edouard Philippe, who consistently ranks as one of the most popular politicians in France.

Le Pen vowed to challenge the verdict on appeal hoping to get back in the race, but the process is slow and tedious in France. Legal experts say it will be extremely difficult to overturn the prosecution鈥檚 case before the election.

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Global Europe Program

The Global Europe Program is focused on Europe鈥檚 capabilities, and how it engages on critical global issues. We investigate European approaches to critical global issues. We examine Europe鈥檚 relations with Russia and Eurasia, China and the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa. Our initiatives include 鈥淯kraine in Europe鈥濃攁n examination of what it will take to make Ukraine鈥檚 European future a reality. But we also examine the role of NATO, the European Union and the OSCE, Europe鈥檚 energy security, transatlantic trade disputes, and challenges to democracy. The Global Europe Program鈥檚 staff, scholars-in-residence, and Global Fellows participate in seminars, policy study groups, and international conferences to provide analytical recommendations to policy makers and the media.   Read more

Global Europe Program