乐鱼 体育

for Mexico鈥檚 upcoming June 2nd presidential election consistently show the Morena candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum in the lead, the opposition candidate, X贸chitl G谩lvez, in second place, and trailing behind, usually with less than 10% of vote, the Movimiento Ciudadano  candidate, Jorge 脕lvarez M谩ynez. However, upon closer examination of two specific demographics, the 鈥測outh vote鈥� (18-34 years old) and voters in states where Movimiento Ciudadano has a stronghold, a different picture emerges.  

Movimiento Ciudadano hasn鈥檛 yet gained a significant stronghold in central Mexico, but it has in the states of Nuevo Le贸n and Jalisco, where the party holds two governorships. National surveys reveal M谩ynez鈥檚 popularity substantially below that of his competitors, but a survey conducted in Guadalajara (the capital of Jalisco) of 50 respondents (almost 70% of whom were between the ages of 18 and 34) showed otherwise. [1] The survey found that 34% of respondents plan to vote for M谩ynez, 32% for Sheinbaum, and only 14% for G谩lvez. 68% plan to vote for the Movimiento Ciudadano candidate for governor, Pablo Lemus. 84% of survey respondents said they utilize social media as their primary source for information about the elections and candidates, with 36% preferring Facebook and another 20% preferring TikTok. While this survey is a sampling of a small percentage of Jalisco鈥檚 voting population, it paints a different picture than what the national surveys show. 

Along these lines, but specifically focusing on the younger demographic of voters is the  , or the national election simulation. Last week, over a quarter of a million university students from more than 400 different universities and campuses across Mexico participated in these and Claudia Sheinbaum won with 63.5% of the vote, followed by Jorge 脕lvarez M谩ynez with 23.1% of the vote, and X贸chitl G谩lvez with 8.5%. Among this population of young voters, Sheinbaum鈥檚 lead is undeniably strong, and at the same time, M谩ynez鈥檚 performance should be recognized and his party鈥檚 efforts to capture this vote applauded. Yes, Maynez鈥檚 popularity in national surveys pales in comparison to that of his competitors', but these exercises reveal that Movimiento Ciudadano is a force to be reckoned with 鈥� and one that might impact the trajectory of Mexican politics, particularly for the next presidential cycle. 

M谩ynez鈥檚 performance should be studied, rather than criticized at this juncture. Though he has polled substantially below his competitors in national polls, he only just arrived on the national political scene in January of this year when he was named the Movimiento Ciudadano presidential candidate, just weeks after the original candidate, current Movimiento Ciudadano governor of Nuevo Le贸n, Samuel Garc铆a, abruptly dropped out of the race. Of note, the party has faced significant internal conflict regarding the decision not to ally with the opposition for the 2024 elections.  [2] 

Movimiento Ciudadano has taken a page of Morena鈥檚 playbook 鈥� courting a specific sector of the voting population that has historically been overlooked 鈥� millennials 鈥� and made it the party鈥檚 primary audience. Unlike his baby boomer competitors, M谩ynez is a millennial and his campaign reflects as such, both in terms of the platform and PR strategy. In conjunction with traditional campaign promises of improving the security situation in Mexico, bolstering the economy, and addressing corruption, M谩ynez鈥檚 platform also includes mention of ensuring affordable housing (with a specific focus on younger generations), reforms to Mexico鈥檚 pension plans, and even the legalization of certain drugs. Unlike his competitors who host traditional 鈥渕铆tines鈥� to stump and meet potential voters, M谩ynez has taken a different approach, hosting campaign events at universities around the country.

The party also knows the power of social media (largely in part thanks to the Monterrey Movimiento Ciudadano mayoral candidate and First Lady of Nuevo Le贸n, ) and has wielded it wisely to connect with voters. M谩ynez lags behind in the polls, but the numbers on social media tell a different story. Following the April debate, the of followers M谩ynez has on Facebook and TikTok surpassed those of G谩lvez. While social media following doesn鈥檛 translate to voter turnout at the polls, in an increasingly ever-connected world, it does indicate popular support 鈥� and a captive audience, ready for the next electoral cycle. 

It seems that Movimiento Ciudadano is in its 鈥渂uilding season,鈥� not necessarily expecting full-blown success in this election, but rather, strategically plotting and planning for the chapter ahead 鈥� the 2030 presidential election. However, the significance and impact of Movimiento Ciudadano鈥檚 participation in this presidential election cannot be overlooked. 

One, in the short term, Movimiento Ciudadano鈥檚 participation splits the vote, taking away votes from the other two candidates, predominantly impacting the opposition. In fact, just this week (less than three weeks away from Election Day), [3] suggested that M谩ynez withdraw from the race, so that would-be M谩ynez voters instead vote for the opposition candidate, thus increasing the odds of Morena鈥檚 loss come election day. Alejandro Moreno, the PRI party president, encouraged this proposal, promising that if M谩ynez withdraws from the race, Moreno, in exchange, will relinquish his title as party president to M谩ynez. This must occur ahead of the third and final presidential debate on May 19th. M谩ynez, for his part, has reaffirmed his commitment to participating in the race and has called Moreno鈥檚 proposal a desperate act. Will Movimiento Ciudadano eventually cede and collaborate with the opposition to defeat the current ruling party? Or, does this set up an eventual alliance or commitment to collaborate between Movimiento Ciudadano and Morena, should Morena win the election? Or, the third, and most likely option, will Movimiento Ciudadano continue operating alone?

Second, Movimiento Ciudadano鈥檚 public relations, voter courting strategy is a long-term game and the party is both building up and out its rolodex. How likely are these young voters, fueled by the momentum that Movimiento Ciudadano has garnered over the past year, likely to ride the wave into the next presidential election? Those between the ages of 18 to 34 years old constitute 37% of Mexico鈥檚 eligible voting population, according to the . For comparison, voters who are 65 and older only represent 13%. 

Only time will tell what becomes of Movimiento Ciudadano. Perhaps we鈥檙e seeing the emergence of a new type of politics in Mexico, or at least a party that skews more toward courting younger voters as compared to the party politics of the past that focused on promoting and upholding the status quo. Or, maybe we鈥檙e witnessing the emergence of a new political class in Mexico, the politician pseudo influencer, who in the case of Movimiento Ciudadano, is identified by their neon orange attire, use of the term , and above all, strategic use of social media. M谩ynez may not outright win the election, but the popular support he鈥檚 drummed up, particularly among millennial voters, and the controversy he鈥檚 stirred up within Mexico鈥檚 political circles are significant accomplishments in and of themselves. 
 

[1] Special thanks to Lic. Jes煤s Alejandro G贸mez Ledezma for conducting the surveys and sharing the data.

[2] As a result, key figures within the party ranks, such as Jalisco鈥檚 Movimiento Ciudadano governor, Enrique Alfaro, have decided to step away from the party. 

[3] The current mayor of Monterrey, MC candidate for the Senate, and son of the late Luis Donaldo Colosio, the PRI presidential candidate who was murdered at a campaign rally in Tijuana in 1994.